Over the past few months, Ukraine has brought the war all the way to Russia .
Hundreds of drones and missiles are now regularly flying into Russian territory, sometimes causing chaos. (Images of a recent attack show the entire roof of a Moscow oil refinery being blown off to the ground, much to the astonishment of onlookers.) Ukraine attacked Crimea – territory annexed by Russia in 2014 – to the point that authorities on the peninsula declared a state of emergency.
Four and a half years after the war broke out in Ukraine in 2022, there appears to have been some kind of shift in this protracted conflict.
Russians have complained about the tax increases to pay for the war against Ukraine and the country's broader economic difficulties. Then Ukraine made things worse.
The attack this week, which involved 419 drones targeting Russia, including more than 60 aimed at Moscow, is the latest move in Kyiv's escalating campaign in recent months to bring the war back home, affect more Russians, and usher in a new phase of the conflict.
Some of these attacks, targeting oil refineries and other infrastructure, resulted in horrific scenes. Putin was forced to open his crucial economic conference in his hometown of St. Petersburg on June 3rd under a smoky sky – the aftermath of a nearby Ukrainian attack. On June 18th, Ukraine launched its largest attack on Moscow since the start of the war, blanketing the Russian capital's skies with plumes of black smoke from explosions at an oil refinery.
This campaign caused fuel shortages across the country. Gas stations implemented a rationing system, and some drivers had to queue for hours to fill their tanks. Despite being one of the world's largest oil producers, Russia had to turn to other countries for emergency fuel supplies.
In Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and which has recently become a focal point of Kyiv's attention, power outages are frequent. Gas is almost unavailable. Electric water pumps are also not working.
Ukraine's objective is simple: to put enough pressure on Putin domestically to eventually get him to agree to end the war. But so far, Putin has only shown defiance.
When a Ukrainian drone exploded over the Kremlin, the conflict continued. As Ukraine occupied parts of Russian territory in Kursk, Putin maintained his position (and Ukraine eventually withdrew its troops).
In a Gallup survey conducted between March and May, 60% of Russians said the economic situation in their city or region was deteriorating.
Will things be different this time?
Initially, Putin remained silent about the escalating Ukrainian attacks. Other Russian officials also used euphemisms such as "unplanned maintenance" for Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel facilities, and even avoided revealing the locations of bomb shelters or using air raid sirens when Russian cities were under attack – after all, this wasn't war, but merely a "special military operation."
However, Putin later stated that attacks on Russian infrastructure did indeed "cause problems" and lead to "certain shortages," but called the situation "not serious."
The Ukrainian attacks are psychological warfare “aimed at making us feel insecure about ourselves and our own strength,” dividing Russian society and “forcing Russia to temporarily halt, at least for a short time, the offensive of our troops on the front lines.”
"We will not give them that opportunity," Putin said. He then spent much of the interview detailing the distance Russian troops were still from various Ukrainian cities along the front line.
Ukraine's new approach is succeeding in one respect: the projection of power onto Russian territory. The Russians have noticed this and don't like it. Even Putin has acknowledged their displeasure.
There is even a possibility that Putin will respond not only with defiance but also with escalation, as Ukrainian military officials have warned could happen very soon.
This raises two big questions: How far can Ukraine go in its campaign? And how long can Putin hold out? For now, the Russian leader is resolutely standing his ground.
Source: https://danviet.vn/ukraine-dua-chien-war-len-lanh-tho-nga-d1439793.html
