Selling pressure returned, pushing the MXV-Index back to 2,859 points.

Global commodity markets reversed course and weakened on June 3rd as selling pressure increased across many sectors. While the prospect of abundant supply continued to push coffee prices to new lows, metals also came under pressure as expectations of high interest rates in the US led to more cautious investor sentiment. At closing, the MXV-Index fell 0.3% to 2,859 points.

Coffee prices fall to an 18-month low.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), industrial raw materials continued to be the focus of price declines in yesterday's trading session, with coffee being the commodity under significant pressure.

Market sentiment continues to be dominated by the prospect of improved supply as harvesting in Brazil proceeds more smoothly than expected. Many analysts have collectively raised their forecasts for the new crop year, with estimates now ranging from 66 to nearly 80 million bags.

Assuming production reaches approximately 73.8 million bags and domestic consumption remains around 22 million bags, Brazil could export up to 51.5 million bags in the 2026-2027 crop year, about 32-36% higher than the current crop year. This is one of the factors leading traders to increasingly believe that the pressure of supply shortages in the global coffee market will gradually ease.

Supply from Vietnam is also showing signs of improvement. In the first eight months of the 2025-2026 crop year, Vietnam's coffee exports increased by approximately 25% compared to the same period of the previous crop year. In May alone, exports reached about 146,000 tons, equivalent to the same period last year.

At the close of trading, July Arabica futures fell 2.35% to $5,579 per ton, the lowest level in 18 months. Robusta futures for the same period also fell 2.63% to $3,371 per ton, the lowest in 7 weeks.

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However, selling pressure has not completely overwhelmed the market, as inventories on exchanges remain low. On the ICE exchange, certified Arabica inventories fell to 427,840 bags, the lowest in nearly four months. For Robusta, inventories continue to fluctuate around their lowest levels in two years.

Regarding the weather, World Weather Inc. reported that rain had fallen in some of Brazil's coffee-growing regions earlier this week. However, dry conditions are forecast to return quickly, creating favorable conditions for harvesting and drying in the coming period.

Domestically, the low rainfall in the Central Highlands at the end of May continues to increase concerns about water resources for crops, thereby affecting the yield prospects for the next crop season.

Money is being withdrawn from the silver market.

In the metals market, red dominated all 10 commodities in the group. Notably, COMEX silver was the biggest loser as investors remained cautious about the outlook for US monetary policy.

At the close of trading on June 3, silver futures prices fell 2.5%, to $73.7 per ounce, the lowest level in a month.

According to MXV, the market is currently concerned that inflation may persist longer than expected if energy prices continue to remain high. Disruptions related to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices around $100 per barrel, thereby increasing the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will have to maintain high interest rates for longer than the market expects.

This expectation supported a rebound in the US dollar and US bond yields. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose for the third consecutive session to 99.53 points, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased from 4.46% to 4.49%.

A high-interest-rate environment is generally unfavorable for non-yielding assets like silver. Furthermore, concerns about the outlook for global economic growth are making the market more cautious about industrial demand for silver, adding further pressure on its price.

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In the coming period, market attention will be focused on the US non-farm payrolls report. The report's results are expected to provide further clues about the health of the labor market as well as the Fed's policy direction in the coming months.

In the domestic market, the price of 999 investment silver bars continued to adjust in line with international trends. At the close of trading on June 3rd, the price of silver bars fluctuated around 2.814 - 2.907 million VND/ounce (buying price - selling price), down about 2% compared to the previous session. On the morning of June 4th, the price further declined to the 2.763 - 2.877 million VND/ounce range.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/ap-luc-ban-quay-lai-mxvindex-lui-ve-2859-diem-20260604115608509.htm