This statement creates a completely new situation for the territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno Karabakh region. Armed conflicts have occurred many times between the two countries, casting a shadow of insecurity and instability over the entire Caucasus region. So far, all diplomatic mediation missions undertaken by many external partners to seek a peaceful political solution here have not been successful.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attend a meeting of heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member states in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11, 2019.
Pashinyan tied the concession to Azerbaijan’s commitment to ensuring the safety and human rights of Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh and respecting Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In essence, Armenia’s willingness to make such concessions means its willingness to give up Nagorno Karabakh.
The main reason seems to be that Armenia finds it impossible to defend Nagorno Karabakh against the overwhelming military superiority of Azerbaijan, which is strongly supported by Türkiye. There is a Russian military base in Armenia and Armenia is a member of several military and security alliances led by Russia. But Russia is currently focused on the war in Ukraine, so it is almost impossible to stand by Armenia in the armed conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia also cannot rely on any other external partners to ally, associate or join forces on this issue. Therefore, Armenia seems to give up in order to keep what it can keep and bind external partners to the responsibility of ensuring peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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