This statement has created a completely new situation for the territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno Karabakh region. Armed conflict has occurred numerous times between the two countries, casting a dark shadow of insecurity and instability over the entire Caucasus region. To date, all diplomatic mediation missions undertaken by various external partners to seek a peaceful political solution have been unsuccessful.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attend a meeting of heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11, 2019.
Pashinyan linked the aforementioned concessions to the condition that Azerbaijan must commit to guaranteeing the safety and human rights of Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh and respecting Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. In essence, Armenia's willingness to make such concessions meant a willingness to relinquish Nagorno Karabakh.
The main reason seems to be that Armenia realized it could not defend the Nagorno Karabakh region against Azerbaijan's superior military strength, with the strong backing of Türkiye. Armenia has a Russian military base and is a member of several military and security alliances spearheaded by Russia. However, Russia is currently focused on the conflict in Ukraine, making it almost impossible for it to stand alongside Armenia in any armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia also cannot rely on any other external partners for alliance, cooperation, or joint efforts on this issue. Therefore, Armenia seems to be giving up to preserve what it can and binding external partners to the responsibility of ensuring peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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