The four quarter-final pairings for the Asian Cup have been finalized.

VnExpress•01/02/2024

Qatar: The four strongest teams in Asia will clash in the quarter-finals of the 2023 Asian Cup, with Japan facing Iran and South Korea playing Australia.

The Round of 16, which concluded on January 31st, determined the eight teams advancing to the quarterfinals: Tajikistan, Jordan, Australia, South Korea, Iran, Japan, Qatar, and Uzbekistan. Among these, Tajikistan was a "dark horse," ranking outside the FIFA Top 100 and participating in the tournament for the first time, yet reaching the quarterfinals. Jordan had never reached the semifinals, Uzbekistan's highest achievement was fourth place, while the remaining five teams had all previously won the tournament.

Striker Mehdi Taremi celebrates his goal against Syria in the Round of 16 at the Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium, helping Iran become the last team to advance in the first round, but he will be suspended for the quarter-finals of the 2023 Asian Cup. Photo: AP

Japan vs. Iran and South Korea vs. Australia are both ranked in the FIFA Top 25, possessing world- class quality, and they will also face each other in stadiums that recently hosted the 2022 World Cup. Host nation Qatar is the only team to have won all four of their opening matches, but will face a tough opponent in Uzbekistan. The remaining match is perhaps the most lopsided, with Jordan considered a clear favorite over Tajikistan.

Japan and Iran are the strongest teams in Asia, according to the FIFA rankings – 17th and 21st respectively. Their head-to-head record is also balanced, with six wins, six draws, and six losses for each team. However, in their last seven matches, Iran has only beaten Japan once. Most recently, Hajime Moriyasu's team thrashed Iran 3-0 in the semi-finals of the 2019 Asian Cup. The Iranian squad hasn't changed much since that match five years ago, while Japan has replaced about half of their team.

The match between South Korea and Australia is also evenly matched, with the head-to-head record only slightly favoring the Oceania side, with 12 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses. The results of their last six matches are also similar, with each team winning two, drawing two, and losing two. However, Son Heung-min and his teammates will be looking to get revenge on Australia after their defeat in the 2015 Asian Cup final.

The match between Qatar and Uzbekistan is slightly unbalanced, with the home team ranked 10 places higher in FIFA. However, in terms of Elo rating – an index not based on the importance of the match – Uzbekistan is ranked 16 places higher than Qatar. This is reflected in their head-to-head record, where the Central Asian representative has won nine, drawn two, and lost only three matches against the reigning Asian Cup champions.

Jordan is ranked 19 places higher in FIFA and 35 places higher in Elo than Tajikistan, having impressed in the Round of 16 by eliminating Iraq with two goals in two minutes of added time in the second half. Tajikistan also caused a sensation by defeating the UAE on penalties. According to Opta 's supercomputer, Jordan's chances of advancing are 55%, compared to their opponent's 45%, but either way, one team will make history.

According to Opta , Japan has the best chance of reaching the semi-finals, with a 67% probability, more than double that of Iran. Qatar has a 62% chance of advancing, while Australia is slightly better than South Korea with a 53% probability of reaching the Top 4. Opta is the world's leading football statistics firm, specializing in providing data for top leagues.

The four quarter-final matches will take place on February 2nd and 3rd. If they reach the semi-finals, Japan will face either Qatar or Uzbekistan. Moriyasu's team currently has the highest chance of winning the championship, at 25%.

Hoang An

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