VN-Index faces strong selling pressure due to pre-Tet holiday sentiment; Textile giants report record profits thanks to export revenue; List of potential stocks in Q1; Notable economic events; Dividend payment schedule.
VN-Index experiences sharp correction at the beginning of the year.
The stock market was dominated by red in the first trading sessions of the year. The VN-Index fell sharply by 15.1 points, dropping to 1,254.6 points.
Market liquidity reached nearly 15,000 billion VND, but red dominated with 455 declining stocks and only 126 rising stocks. The VN30 group lost 22.6 points due to strong selling pressure, especially on stocks in the financial sector. 13 stocks in this group fell by 2-3.5%, except for SSB ( SeABank , HOSE) and VCB (Vietcombank, HOSE) which managed to maintain slight gains.
The securities sector recorded the weakest performance among the three pillars of finance (Securities, Real Estate and Services, Banking), falling by 2.3%, equivalent to approximately VND 1,700 billion leaving the market.
The market faced strong selling pressure right from the first trading sessions of the year (Photo: SSI iBoard)
Specifically, DSE (DNSE Securities, HOSE) fell 3.8%, MBS (MB Securities, HOSE) fell 3.5%, BSI ( BIDV Securities, HOSE) fell 3.2%,... Notably, APG shares (APG Securities, HOSE) dropped to a low of 6,530 VND/share, a decrease of 2.4%. Compared to March 2024, this stock has lost nearly 60% of its value, almost losing liquidity.
Contrary to the market trend, small-cap stocks performed well, with KSV (Vimico, HNX) and YEG (Yeah1, HOSE) unexpectedly hitting their upper limits. The oil and gas sector, with stocks like PLX (Petrolimex, HOSE), PVS (PTSC, HNX), and PVD (PV Drilling, HOSE), also maintained their positive performance.
Foreign investors significantly increased net selling to VND 777 billion, putting considerable pressure on the index. The focus was on FPT (FPT, HOSE) shares with a value of VND 228 billion, followed by CTG (VietinBank, HOSE) with VND 122 billion and TCB (Techcombank, HOSE) with VND 73 billion.
Notable events for the Vietnamese stock market in January 2025
The VN-Index was among the high-growth stocks in the global stock market in 2024, recording its second consecutive year of growth at approximately 13%. Looking ahead to 2025, many believe the key factors impacting the stock market will be strong economic growth and a recovery in profits.
Accordingly, investors should take note of the important events in January that could impact the stock market.
Vietnam and US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Announcement (January 2) Vietnam Economic Data for Q4 and 2024 (January 6): Optimistic forecasts for Vietnam's economic situation in 2024 continue to be released, following the General Statistics Office's announcement of GDP growth of 7.4% in Q3 2024 and 6.82% for the first nine months. In addition, the Prime Minister emphasized that 2025 "is a year of acceleration and breakthrough" to successfully achieve the 2021-2025 socio-economic development plan, while also calling for maximum effort and breakthroughs to attract investment and boost production and business so that growth in 2025 will reach at least 8%, and double digits from 2026 onwards.
Announcement of new stock components in VN30 (January 20): Yuanta Securities forecasts that LPB stock will be added to the VN30 index as it meets the criteria, while POW stock is predicted to be removed due to insufficient market capitalization. ETFs will complete portfolio restructuring by February 3, 2025.
According to the latest report from S&P Global, Vietnam's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December reached only 49.8 points, down 1 point from 50.8 points in November. This indicates a slight decline in overall business conditions towards the end of the year.
The Fed announces its policy interest rate (January 30): Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated in the December press conference that "the Fed now needs to be cautious in cutting interest rates and in all monetary policy decisions, and is looking for clues and data that show progress on inflation." This will somewhat impact the movement of foreign capital. According to HSC Securities, in the months surrounding Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the market expected the Fed to maintain its policy interest rate at a high level for a longer period.
TNG , the textile giant . Reports highest profit in history.
TNG Investment and Trading Joint Stock Company (TNG, HOSE) recently announced its preliminary business results for 2024, with revenue reaching VND 7,736 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, and net profit reaching its highest level in history, at VND 315 billion, a 44% increase year-on-year, completing 98% and 102% of the full-year plan respectively.
TNG reports record profit thanks to export revenue (Illustrative image: Internet)
Accordingly, 97% of total revenue comes from exports, with only 3% coming from the domestic market.
Regarding the order situation, as of the end of 2024, the company stated that confirmed orders extend to June 2025 and negotiations are ongoing to finalize the production plan for 2025.
In addition, TNG will soon pay an interim dividend for the third quarter of 2024 in cash at a rate of 4% (400 VND/share) on January 22, 2025, right before the Lunar New Year 2025. With 122.6 million shares outstanding, shareholders will receive a total of 49 billion VND before tax.
Group of promising stocks in the first quarter of each year
Mirae Asset Securities (MAS) has released a statistical report on the stocks that have shown upward trends in the first quarter of recent years.
Accordingly, data is filtered based on the VN100 index and selected stocks with positive growth in the first quarter of each year. The selected portfolio group all showed good growth over the years, including the construction materials, banking, and real estate sectors.
MAS pointed out several stocks that performed exceptionally well in the first quarter, mostly in the banking sector, because the fourth quarter is usually a peak business period, especially for banks, as this is when banks begin to boost credit growth after receiving new credit limits from the State Bank of Vietnam. Notable stocks include TCB (Techcombank, HOSE) and MBB (MBBank, HOSE).
MAS emphasized that January is usually a stable month, and investors should focus on bank stocks and be less dependent on the market. March will be a time of strong growth, with stocks breaking out against the VN-Index, especially in the construction and real estate sectors.
In the real estate sector, SIP (Saigon VRG Investment, HOSE) is noteworthy for achieving the highest growth rate in 2024, reaching 47.8%, and showing strong growth in recent years, outperforming the VN-Index. Additionally, KDH (Khang Dien, HOSE) has shown stable growth.
This was followed by the construction materials group, notably CTR (Viettel Construction, HOSE) which increased by 54% in 2024. Also noteworthy were PTB (Phu Tai, HOSE) and HT1 (Vicem Ha Tien Cement, HOSE).
Assessment and recommendations
Mr. Do Thanh Son, Head of Investment Consulting at Mirae Asset Securities, assessed that the first two trading sessions of the year were not very favorable for the Vietnamese stock market due to pressure from rising exchange rates, which somewhat affected investor sentiment. Looking ahead, investors need to clearly understand the opportunities and risks of the market.
In terms of opportunities, positive Q4 2024 business results provide impetus for stock price increases, driven by improved import and export activities as low interest rates help businesses save on borrowing costs, increasing scale and operational capacity from Q3, which is expected to improve revenue and profits. Next, positive capital inflows from domestic individuals and organizations in the early part of the year help improve liquidity. Finally, there are signals indicating that the market is no longer at risk from exchange rate fluctuations.
The adjustment period will take place before the Lunar New Year.
Conversely, some risks remain as foreign investors continue to sell heavily to shift funds to other assets with higher yields, causing panic among investors and leading to more cautious transactions, or even panic selling due to negative market concerns.
Overall, the market will remain negative in the short term as exchange rates show no signs of cooling down. Furthermore, cautious sentiment before the Lunar New Year continues to cause sideways trading, and the flow of money tends to be sluggish.
Therefore, he advised that the sharp decline last weekend had created panic. Investors should observe the State Bank's USD selling activities and gradually accumulate fundamental stocks. The market will soon reflect all exchange rate risks closer to the Lunar New Year, thereby helping investors secure a good position and take advantage of the new capital inflow after the holiday.
The stock groups worth noting are Banking and Real Estate (residential and industrial sectors).
BSC Securities Based on the developments over the past weekend, the next movement of the VN-Index will depend on bottom-buying activity. In a negative scenario, the index could fall further to the 1,240 point level.
TPS Securities assessment, The VN-Index reacted negatively, falling sharply on January 3rd, with trading volume near the average of the last 20 sessions. Current support levels for the VN-Index are around 1,240 points and 1,220 points. Investors should exercise caution and only consider investing when the market breaks through resistance or buying at support levels below.
Dividend payment schedule this week
According to statistics, 16 companies will finalize dividend entitlements between January 6th and 10th, 2025. Of these, 12 will pay in cash, 1 will pay in shares, and 3 will issue additional shares this week.
The highest percentage is 100%, the lowest is 5%.
One company pays in shares:
Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank ( MBB , HOSE), the ex-dividend date is January 7th, and the dividend rate is 15%.
Three companies issued additional shares:
Dat Xanh Group Joint Stock Company (DXG, HOSE), the ex-dividend date is January 6th, and the dividend rate is 21%.
Guotai Junan Securities Joint Stock Company (Vietnam) (IVS, HNX), the ex-dividend date is January 7th, and the dividend rate is 100%.
Vietourist Tourism Joint Stock Company (VTD, UPCoM), the ex-dividend date is January 9th, and the ratio is 100%.
Cash dividend payment schedule
*Ex-dividend date: This is the trading day on which a buyer, upon establishing ownership of the shares, will no longer be entitled to related rights such as the right to receive dividends or the right to subscribe to newly issued shares, but will still retain the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.
| Code | Floor | Ex-dividend date | TH Day | Proportion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDP | UPCOM | 6/1 | January 20th | 50% |
| BWS | UPCOM | 6/1 | January 16th | 11% |
| NTP | HNX | 6/1 | January 22nd | 15% |
| SAF | HNX | 6/1 | January 16th | 30% |
| NTH | HNX | 7/1 | January 23 | 10% |
| SMB | HOSE | 8/1 | January 17th | 15% |
| DC4 | HOSE | 8/1 | January 20th | 5% |
| NBT | UPCOM | 9/1 | January 23 | 5% |
| QNS | UPCOM | 9/1 | January 21 | 10% |
| GVT | UPCOM | 9/1 | February 26 | 25% |
| DAD | HNX | 9/1 | January 22nd | 15% |
| HNP | UPCOM | 9/1 | January 20th | 6% |
Source: https://pnvnweb.dev.cnnd.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-6-1-10-1-vn-index-dieu-chinh-trong-ngan-han-tai-vung-1240-1250-20250106081542073.htm
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