The final step remaining on the Turkish side is for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to sign the decree announcing and sending it to NATO. Erdogan will certainly do this eventually. The only question is when he will do it, and what further conditions the US, NATO, and Sweden will have to meet from Türkiye.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) shakes hands with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (right) in the presence of the NATO Secretary General in July 2023.
From the very beginning of Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, Erdogan's tactic was to not object in principle, agreeing with other NATO members on political decisions but operating in his own way regarding specific procedures and protocols. Erdogan held NATO "hostage" in the process of admitting Finland and Sweden, forcing the US and the other two countries to meet Turkey's own demands and preconditions. Only after Finland and Sweden conceded to Turkey did Ankara allow Helsinki to join and Stockholm to come to the brink of NATO membership.
To illustrate with an image, the recent ratification by the Turkish parliament is half the final step in Ankara's strategy. The other half is Erdogan's own game with the US. Specifically, Erdogan is deliberately pressuring the US to sell Turkey advanced fighter jets and state-of-the-art weapons. For Erdogan, NATO's admission of Sweden is less important and urgent than Turkey receiving the most modern weapons and military equipment from the US, which would help Turkey become a military power in the region and the Islamic world. Therefore, Sweden is now only half a step away from NATO membership, but must continue to wait – it may not be long, but it could be a long time.
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