The world rice market heats up as prices for this important staple hit a 12-year high. The rice price fever is not expected to cool down anytime soon, due to the El Nino phenomenon affecting crops in the food granaries, while the tendency to increase stockpiles in the context of galloping inflation and unstable security in many countries. .
In a report just released, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that the rice price index in July increased by 7% to 2,8 points, reaching the highest level since since September 129,7. Worryingly, rice prices are forecast to continue to escalate. According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, the volatile situation in the market could last until the end of 9.
Professor Emeritus at Harvard University (USA) Peter Timmer said that rice prices will continue to go up in the next 6 to 12 months. However, the slow growth rate so that consumers have time to adapt or spike is still an open question.
Rice export of Thailand.
Analysts said that one of the main reasons for the recent increase in rice prices was that from the end of July, India announced a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice. New Delhi insists the ban is aimed at stabilizing prices and preventing the risk of food shortages in the country due to the harsh climate.
India's latest ban is similar to the restrictions it imposed in 2007-2008, but the impact on supply and prices in global markets could be more profound, experts say. Compared to 22% 15 years ago, India now accounts for more than 40% of the global rice trade.
According to statistics, last year, India exported 22 million tons of rice to 140 countries. Therefore, the new step of the world's largest rice exporter has immediately shaken the global market, pushing rice prices up by about 20% compared to the level before the ban of India.
Besides, extreme weather also seriously affected production activities in the world's leading rice granaries. This year, the rainy season in India started late with irregular and unevenly distributed rainfall that has hindered farmers' farming activities. It is estimated that the area under rice cultivation in India is 6% lower than the same period in 2022. In Indonesia, farmers in the top rice-producing regions are turning to maize and cabbage in anticipation of drought. drought.
The world's second largest rice exporter, Thailand, is experiencing low rainfall this year, while preparing for a possible drought in 2024 due to the influence of El Nino. . The Royal Irrigation Department said that this year's rainfall will be lower than the 30-year average. Water levels in the main dams are down by about 50% from 2022 levels. Against this backdrop, the Thai government is encouraging farmers to reduce the area under rice cultivation and switch to other crops to adapt to low rainfall conditions.
Many experts said that the high price of rice leads to unpredictable consequences. Affirming that the poor are the most vulnerable to food price shocks, Joseph Glauber, senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said that high rice prices affect the diets of consumers. billion people in Asia and Africa, where rice is a staple food.
Expensive prices and reduced supply increase the risk of a new wave of trade protectionism, as governments strengthen export controls to secure food stocks. In fact, right after India introduced the ban, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also imposed a ban on exporting and re-exporting rice for four months, while Russia announced to suspend rice exports. raw and processed rice until the end of the year to support the domestic market.
The fact that rice prices are constantly hitting records is putting strong pressure on the global food system, which is seriously out of balance. According to the United Nations, more than 780 million people around the world are suffering from food shortages. This number is likely to rise even higher, as a result of supply disruptions and rice price fever.
According to Nhan Dan Newspaper
