Will the downward trend continue?

Coffee prices on June 28, 2024, in the domestic market are expected to continue their downward trend. Weather conditions in the main coffee-growing regions of Vietnam's Central Highlands are reported to have been affected by drier weather and extreme heat from March to May.

The chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the combination of drought, heatwaves, and outbreaks of mealybugs and red spider mites will reduce the yield of the next Robusta crop in Vietnam by 15% to 20%.

According to Vicofa's estimates, Robusta coffee production for the 2023/24 crop is approximately 26.7 million bags, while the following 2024/25 crop in Vietnam will be between 21.40 and 22.70 million bags. This figure is significantly lower than Volcafé's previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and considerably lower than the US Department of Agriculture 's estimate of 27.85 million bags released last week. This lower production scenario is naturally reflected in Robusta coffee prices in London and the absence of Vietnamese coffee growers, who hold the leading Robusta supply, from the market.

In the domestic market, as of 4:30 AM on June 27, 2024, according to www.giacaphe.com, coffee prices in Vietnam have decreased by 3,000 VND/kg, ranging from 120,000 to 121,400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,200 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 121,400 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,200 VND/kg, while in Pleiku and La Grai it is 121,100 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province the price is 121,200 VND/kg; and in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,400 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 120,000 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices (June 27th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 121,300 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 121,200 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

World coffee prices updated at 8:30 PM on June 27, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange: Robusta coffee futures contracts for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange were at US$4,078/ton, up US$19 from the beginning of the trading session. The November 2024 contract was US$3,887/ton, up US$14; the January 2025 contract was US$3,713/ton, up US$3; and the March 2025 contract was US$3,640/ton, up US$15.

New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on June 27, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 222.00 and 227.00 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was 227.00 cents/lb, up 2.65 cents/lb from the start of the session. The December 2024 contract was 225.40 cents/lb, up 2.90 cents/lb; the March 2024 contract was 223.85 cents/lb, up 2.95 cents/lb; and the May 2025 contract was 222.00 cents/lb, up 2.90 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:30 PM on June 27, 2024, showed mixed movements. Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $284.00/ton, down 2.20%; the September 2024 contract was $277.75/ton (up 126%); the December 2024 contract was $273.95/ton (down 1.13%); and the March 2025 contract was $268.05/ton, down 6.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 7:00 PM to 2:35 AM (the following day), Vietnam time.

The market traded moderately lower on Wednesday, as the Brazilian Real fell to its lowest level in 19 months against the dollar, encouraging export sales from Brazilian coffee producers. Additionally, forecasts of rain next week in Brazil's coffee-growing regions helped alleviate concerns about drought that had been putting pressure on coffee prices.

According to the Indian Business website, India's coffee exports have increased due to Europe boosting purchases from the country ahead of the European Union's anti-deforestation law (EUDR) coming into effect.

Indian coffee exporters are seeing increasing demand from European buyers, who are reportedly stockpiling ahead of the deadline for compliance with the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) standards. The EUDR aims to reduce imports of products linked to deforestation and requires strict verification and traceability measures for commodities such as coffee, potentially impacting exports from producing countries.

This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2862024-da-giam-van-tiep-dien-328620.html