The Thai baht reached a 5-year high.

Bank employees count Thai baht in Bangkok, Thailand. (Photo: AFP/VNA)

The Thai baht started 2026 on a stronger note, continuing its upward trend supported by rising global gold prices following the US campaign in Venezuela and by signs of foreign capital inflows as the US dollar weakened.

The baht ended 2025 at 31.02 baht to the US dollar, with a rapid appreciation marking a five-year high. For the entire year, the baht rose 9.42%, from around 34 baht to the US dollar at the beginning of the year, supported by a weaker US dollar, foreign exchange selling by the gold market following a surge in gold prices, and foreign capital inflows into Thai bonds. The baht closed the January 6th session at 31.26 baht to the US dollar, after briefly rising to 31.15 baht to the US dollar.

Kanjana Chokpaisalsilp, a research fellow at the Kasikorn Research Center, said the strengthening baht, along with rising gold prices, was supported by the US-Venezuela conflict and by foreign capital inflows. As of January 6, foreign investors had recorded net purchases of 2,371.54 million baht ($76 million) in stocks and 929 million baht ($29.77 million) in Thai bonds.

She said the baht also fluctuated in line with most Asian currencies, while the US dollar weakened along with falling US bond yields after the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.9 in December 2025, the lowest level since October 2024, lower than market expectations of 48.4 and down from 48.2 in November 2025.

According to Kanjana, key factors to watch include foreign capital flows, volatility of Asian currencies and global gold prices, signals on US interest rates from statements by Fed officials, and the December services PMI for the eurozone, the UK, and the US.

Meanwhile, Poon Panichpibool, a strategist at Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, said the baht has strengthened more than expected. However, he believes the pace of appreciation may slow in the short term as the market awaits key US labor market data, which could reshape expectations about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

Roong Sanguanruang, Senior Director of Global Market Planning at Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), said the baht could strengthen beyond 31 baht to 1 USD. The direction of the baht remains dependent on global gold prices, while other capital flows have decreased towards the end of the year, meaning low liquidity could amplify volatility.

In 2026, she forecasts the baht will fluctuate between 30.80 and 33.00 baht per USD, supported by the possibility of Fed interest rate cuts and Thailand's current account surplus. Negative factors include Thailand's low growth outlook and the risk of falling gold prices if US employment data is stronger than expected.

Source: https://vtv.vn/dong-baht-thai-lan-len-dinh-5-nam-10026010714005643.htm