Compared to a month ago, the price of 5% broken rice increased by 15 USD to 498 USD/ton. This is the highest price in years. Meanwhile, the price of rice of the same grade of Thailand decreased by about 10 USD to 494 USD/ton. Especially Pakistani rice decreased by more than 20 USD to 503 USD/ton. As for India, still maintained at 453 USD/ton.
El Nino will reduce rice supply, pushing prices up
According to experts, the export price of rice in some countries decreased because it had previously increased too high, exceeding the tolerance threshold of importers. The fact that rice prices were pushed up too high also contributed to the quiet market. In addition, importers are also keen to monitor new developments related to productivity and output from major suppliers in Asia.
In Thailand, the country's press quoted research reports estimating that this year's rice production may decrease by up to 6%, to 25,1-25,6 million tons due to the influence of El Nino weather phenomenon. If El Nino this year lasts longer, it will cause water levels in many reservoirs to drop seriously, affecting both main crop and second crop next year. In the first 4 months of this year, Thailand exported nearly 2,8 million tons of rice and set a target of 2023 million tons in 8.
Meanwhile, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) warned that in 2023, Vietnam is only able to export about 6,3 million tons of rice, lower than the set target of about 1 million tons. The reason is that there is no inventory from the previous year.
The El Nino phenomenon also makes the rice import demand of many markets increase sharply such as: Philippines, China, Indonesia and Africa. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the world rice market may be short of 8,7 million tons in the 2022/23 crop year (May 5.2022 – May 5.2023). According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, rice consumption in the crop year 2023/24 is forecast at a record 523 million tons, an increase of 1,5 million tons compared to the previous crop year (beyond production by 2,5 million tons). million tons). Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 2,5 million tons to 166,7 million tons. This is also the third year in a row that inventories have decreased and are at the lowest level since the 3/2017 crop year.
