The global commodities market closed the final trading session of June with buying pressure dominating across many sectors. At closing, the MXV-Index rose more than 0.8% to 2,568 points. Notably, coffee prices surged simultaneously, attracting investor attention as the market closely monitored harvest developments in Brazil .
MXV-Index
Heavy rains in Brazil cause Arabica coffee prices to surge by nearly 7%.
Coffee continued to be a bright spot attracting investment on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) in the last trading session of June. The trading value of this commodity increased by over 52%, contributing over 90% of the total trading value of the entire industrial raw materials group.
At the close of trading on June 30th, the prices of both key coffee commodities recorded strong increases. Arabica coffee prices rose 6.7% to $6,535 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased 2.6% to $3,658 per ton. Over the last 15 trading sessions, coffee prices have risen in 11 sessions, reflecting a return of positive sentiment in the market.
Coffee futures price trends
According to MXV, unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil continue to be the main driver supporting prices. As the world's largest coffee producer enters the peak Arabica harvest season, prolonged heavy rainfall has increased concerns about harvesting progress and post-harvest quality.
Data from the Brazilian Coffee Research and Technical Support Organization (Procafé) shows that approximately 60-65% of Brazil's Arabica crop is still being harvested. Meanwhile, the meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia recorded rainfall in Minas Gerais state at 31.3 mm in the week ending June 28th, nearly 20 times higher than the historical average for the same period.
Arabica coffee prices rose 6.7% to $6,535 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased 2.6% to $3,658 per ton.
Prolonged periods of rain not only disrupt field operations but also increase the risk to the quality of coffee beans during the drying process.
According to consulting firm Safras & Mercado, Brazil's coffee harvest has only reached 44% of the projected yield, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year and about 3 percentage points lower than the five-year average.
Besides weather factors, the market is also witnessing a shift in investment fund strategies. After five consecutive weeks of reducing net long positions, funds have returned to increasing their positions in the last two weeks. As of June 23rd, net long positions reached nearly 21,000 contracts, an increase of over 49% compared to the previous week.
According to MXV, the return of speculative capital suggests the market is reflecting real concerns about crop progress in Brazil as well as potential climate risks in the coming months.
Net positions of participating groups in the coffee futures market. Source: MXV
Conversely, the short-term weather outlook could help alleviate some of the pressure on supply. World Weather Inc. forecasts that dry conditions will return to Brazil in the next 7-10 days, thereby facilitating farmers in accelerating their harvests.
Nevertheless, the market remains cautious as certified Arabica inventories at the ICE exchange continue to decline and have now reached their lowest level in over two years. With no clear signs of improvement in short-term supply, analysts believe that weather conditions in Brazil will continue to play a dominant role in price trends in the coming period.
Mr. Tran Son Tung, General Director of Southeast Asia Commodity Trading Joint Stock Company (SACT) - Trading Member 045 of MXV, commented that the strong increase in coffee prices yesterday mainly stemmed from heavy rains in key Arabica-growing regions of Brazil, disrupting the harvesting process, while the inventory of certified Arabica on the ICE exchange had fallen to its lowest level in over two years. He believes this is primarily a market reaction to risks related to quality and speed of market delivery, rather than reflecting a significant decline in production.
According to Mr. Tung, coffee prices in the short term are likely to continue to fluctuate sharply and be heavily influenced by weather developments in Brazil. If rain persists or frost occurs, the upward trend in coffee prices could be further strengthened and spread to the domestic market. Conversely, if weather conditions are more favorable and supply from Brazil and Vietnam improves, the market may experience technical corrections.
According to the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , in mid-June, domestic coffee prices increased in line with Robusta coffee prices on the world market. Domestic supply gradually decreased, while people were holding onto their stock waiting for higher prices, resulting in limited coffee supply to the market.
In addition, concerns about unfavorable weather conditions in major producing regions also contributed to the price increase. On June 18th, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 2,200 - 2,600 VND/kg compared to June 1st, fluctuating between 89,400 - 89,600 VND/kg (depending on the surveyed area).
The El Niño phenomenon could increase the risk of drought in key producing regions. In addition, low coffee inventories on the ICE exchange are also contributing to price support.
As of June 16th, Arabica inventories had fallen to 396,957 lots, the lowest level in 7 months; while Robusta inventories stood at approximately 3,991 lots.
Regarding demand, Robusta coffee continues to receive positive signals thanks to stable demand from the instant coffee and blending industries. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Vietnam's coffee production in the 2025 crop year to 31.7 million bags, of which Robusta coffee will account for approximately 30.5 million bags. However, this information has not yet created downward pressure on prices because the market is still affected by weather risks, harvesting progress in Brazil, and low inventory levels.
Wheat prices surged after the USDA's acreage report.
Besides the positive developments in coffee, the agricultural commodities group also recorded an improvement in liquidity as capital continued to flow between key commodities. On the MXV, soybeans and corn remained attractive commodities for investors as the market sought new equilibrium zones after a prolonged correction period.
At the close of trading, Chicago November wheat futures rose 1.6% to $216.50 per ton. Kansas wheat prices also increased 1.7% to $229 per ton.
According to MXV, lower-than-expected planting acreage and inventory levels provided the impetus for wheat prices to recover, ending the previous losing streak.
In its recently released report, the USDA estimates that the total area planted with wheat in the U.S. for the 2026-2027 crop year will only reach approximately 17.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 418,900 hectares compared to the Planting Plan report from March and about 449,200 hectares lower than the market's average expectations. This is also the lowest planted area in the U.S. since 1919.
Of that total, the area planted with winter wheat reached only about 12.76 million hectares, the lowest level in six years and lower than analysts' previous forecasts. The area planted with spring wheat also decreased to about 3.8 million hectares, marking the smallest production scale in the past 56 years, while the area planted with Durum wheat decreased to about 0.74 million hectares.
These figures have heightened concerns about the supply outlook for the new crop year, while also prompting a return of technical buying activity in the futures market.
Table showing the area of wheat planted in the US in 2026. Source: MXV
The recovery in wheat prices was further strengthened after the USDA's quarterly grain inventory report showed that U.S. old-crop wheat inventories reached over 25 million tons as of June 1st.
Although this figure is about 8% higher than the same period last year, it is still about 381,000 tons lower than market forecasts. This indicates that actual supply is not as abundant as previously expected, thus further supporting positive investor sentiment.
US wheat stocks. Source: MXV
Domestically, wheat demand remains limited. The market has only seen small transactions from oilseed mills amidst persistently high bran prices, leading businesses to be more cautious about importing. Currently, domestic wheat prices fluctuate between 6,900 and 7,000 VND/kg.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-arabica-tang-gan-7-463548.html
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