Robusta coffee prices turn down

At the end of the trading session, Arabica coffee prices decreased by 1% while Robusta coffee prices lost 0.47% of their value, closing at nearly 4,900 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), agricultural product prices were sharply lower yesterday (January 16). All seven commodities saw price decreases ranging from 1% to 2.7%, with soybeans showing a weakening trend after three consecutive days of decline. Furthermore, selling pressure dominated the industrial raw materials market, with prices of many commodities such as coffee and palm oil falling. At the close of trading, the MXV-Index fell slightly by 0.4% to 2,305 points.

Thị trường hàng hóa 17/1: Giá cà phê quay đầu suy yếu

MXV-Index

Favorable weather forecast in South America leads to lower soybean prices.

Closing yesterday's trading session, the agricultural market was in the red as prices fell across the board. Notably, soybean prices declined for the third consecutive session after losing another 2.28% yesterday, closing at 1,019 cents/bushel (US$374.4/ton). Positive weather forecasts in Argentina and information regarding soybean supply in Brazil put downward pressure on prices.

Agricultural product price list

The focus of the soybean market yesterday was positive news regarding weather conditions in Argentina, one of South America's leading soybean producers. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, after a prolonged period of drought, most of Argentina's main soybean-producing regions are forecast to receive rainfall ranging from 25 mm to over 100 mm starting today. This will provide better conditions for soybean growth, thereby improving yields and production.

Furthermore, the positive outlook for soybean supply in Brazil during the 2024-2025 crop year is also contributing to pressure on prices. Consulting firm Agroconsult has raised its estimate for Brazil's soybean production to a record 172.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to its previous forecast. According to Agroconsult, favorable climatic conditions and good planting conditions in key producing regions are driving yields in major producing states like Mato Grosso. The market expects Brazil's record soybean production to offset the decline from Argentina, thereby helping to secure global supply.

Meanwhile, in its daily sales report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. This soybean shipment is expected for the 2024-2025 crop year. Simultaneously, in its weekly sales report ending January 9th, the USDA announced sales of 569,200 tons of soybeans for the 2024-2025 crop year, consistent with previous expectations of 300,000-800,000 tons and nearly double the amount from the previous week. However, this was the week sales resumed after the holiday, and the market had somewhat anticipated this large sales volume. Therefore, the impact from the export data was not strong enough to create a significant reversal in price movements.

Coffee prices reversed course and weakened amid supply pressures.

According to MXV, at the close of yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw materials market continued to experience a tug-of-war with prices fluctuating in opposite directions. In particular, coffee prices weakened after Brazil announced record export figures for 2024, which helped offset concerns about tight supply in Vietnam. At closing, Arabica coffee prices fell 1% while Robusta coffee prices lost 0.47%, ending the session at nearly $4,900 per ton.

Industrial raw material price list

Specifically, according to a report by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE), in 2024, Brazil exported a total of 50.4 million 60kg bags of coffee, including both green and processed coffee. This export volume marked an increase of nearly 30% compared to 2023 and was also the highest level ever recorded in history, breaking the previous record of 44.7 million 60kg bags in 2020. Of this, Arabica coffee was the most exported (accounting for 74.53% of total coffee exports) with 36.95 million 60kg bags, equivalent to a 20% increase compared to 2023. In addition, Robusta coffee exports (with a share of 18.5%) reached 9.36 million 60kg bags, an increase of 98% compared to 2023.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions this morning (January 17th) were recorded at 115,000 - 115,500 VND/kg, a decrease of 600 - 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have increased by more than 40,000 VND/kg.

Similarly, crude palm oil prices lost 1.5% of their value, falling to $955.11 per ton. The main reason for the downward pressure on this commodity's price yesterday stemmed from the less optimistic consumption outlook in India, one of the world's largest palm oil importers.

Specifically, according to Reuters, Indian government officials said that palm oil imports in January 2025 are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly five years, due to a sharp drop in demand and buyers shifting from consuming palm oil to soybean oil. Officials estimate that the country imported around 110,000 tons of palm oil in the first half of January, and imports for the entire month are expected to reach only about 340,000-370,000 tons, the lowest level since March 2020.

Prices of some other goods