Soybean prices have recovered.

Báo Công thương•04/02/2025

Closing the first trading session of February, soybean prices rebounded by more than 1.5% to $388 per ton, completely erasing the losses from the previous session.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the global raw materials market experienced significant fluctuations in the first trading session of the week (February 3rd). Notably, the agricultural market saw price increases across six out of seven commodities. In addition, energy prices saw slight increases in crude oil, while natural gas prices surged by over 10%. At closing, buying pressure dominated, pushing the MXV-Index up 1.11% to 2,311 points.

Thị trường hàng hóa 4/2: Giá đậu tương phục hồi trở lại

MXV Index

Soybean prices have recovered.

Closing the first trading session of February, soybean prices rebounded by more than 1.5% to $388 per ton, completely erasing the losses from the previous session. Prices were supported by adverse weather conditions in South America and changes in tariff policies by President Donald Trump.

Agricultural product price list

On February 3, US President Donald Trump announced a one-month suspension of tariffs on Mexican imports following talks with his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum. Trump stated that the US and Mexico would use this month-long suspension to engage in further negotiations. Trump's decision to postpone tariffs on Mexico and Canada reflects Washington's more cautious, flexible, and conciliatory tariff policy at this time, sparking hopes in the market for early negotiations with China. If the Trump administration also adopts a more conciliatory approach towards China, trade tensions between the two countries could be avoided. This is good news for US soybean exports, helping to support prices.

Meanwhile, weather conditions in South America are showing a clear divergence, with Argentina experiencing drought while Brazil is experiencing wet conditions. Brazilian farmers are still struggling due to wet conditions slowing down the soybean harvest. Meanwhile, crops in Argentina continue to be affected by drought. Recent rains have not been enough to improve the situation, and the country will need more rainfall in the coming period. The bad weather in South America also contributed to buying pressure in the market yesterday.

Yesterday's Export Inspections report showed that in the week ending January 30th, US soybean shipments reached 1.01 million tons, higher than the 738,000 tons shipped the previous week. Cumulatively, since the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year, the US has shipped a total of 34 million tons of soybeans, exceeding the 29 million tons shipped in the previous crop year. This indicates relatively positive performance from the US export sector.

On the price chart, the two finished soybean products, soybean meal and soybean oil, showed relatively opposite movements. Soybean oil closed at its highest level in over two months due to the US decision to postpone tariffs on Mexico.

Natural gas prices surged by more than 10%.

According to MXV, the energy market closed in positive territory yesterday. Notably, the prices of both crude oil rose slightly but remained at their lowest levels in a month. Meanwhile, natural gas prices surged amid continuing harsh weather conditions in the US.

Specifically, WTI crude oil prices edged up slightly by 0.87%, to $73.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil prices remained stable at $76.76 per barrel. Natural gas prices surged by 0.31 cents, or approximately 10.12%, to $3.35 per MMBtu.

Energy price list

Before President Trump temporarily halted new tariffs on Mexico for a month, after Mexico agreed to bolster security at its northern border to ease concerns about fentanyl and illegal immigration into the U.S., oil prices briefly rose by more than $1 a barrel during the session. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, exports from Canada and Mexico account for about a quarter of the oil that U.S. refineries convert into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil.

According to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing activity grew in January for the first time in over two years. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9, the highest level since September 2022, and 1.7 higher than the December 2024 figure. However, these recoveries may not last as Trump's tariffs could increase raw material prices and disrupt supply chains.

Yesterday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to maintain a policy of gradually increasing oil production starting in April and to exclude the U.S. Energy Information Administration from the sources used to monitor production and compliance with oil supply agreements.

Recently, the Federal Reserve (FED) expressed concern that Trump's tariff policies would affect inflation, so the FED did not adjust interest rates for the next operating period. At the same time, it warned that higher inflation could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates to combat rising prices. This could reduce energy demand by increasing borrowing costs and slow economic growth.

Natural gas prices have surged to their highest level in seven days due to forecasts of colder temperatures in the U.S., boosting demand for natural gas heating. Conversely, tightening U.S. natural gas supplies are also supporting prices. The EIA inventory report showed that U.S. natural gas inventories as of January 24th were 4.1% lower than the five-year average for the same period, marking the first time in two years that supplies have fallen below the five-year average.

In Europe, natural gas storage capacity as of January 28th was only 55% full, lower than the five-year seasonal average of 62%. This has caused European natural gas prices to rise to their highest level in 15 months.

Prices of some other goods