Copper prices hit a new record high.

Notably, COMEX copper prices climbed to a record high, reaching $13,173 per ton, a nearly 5% increase, as the market reacted to supply risks and the shift of physical goods flows into the US.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the upward trend was supported by concerns about production disruptions in Chile, after Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine faced a strike starting on January 2nd. The company stated that its production capacity might only be maintained at around 30% of normal levels.

Downstream, the market also saw increased stockpiling in the US amid concerns that Washington might impose tariffs on imported refined copper this year. As of January 5th, copper inventories at the COMEX exchange reached over 456,000 tonnes, a record high, far exceeding inventories at the LME (142,000 tonnes) and SHFE (111,700 tonnes). The increase in US inventories reflects a shift in supply rather than oversupply. The concentration of copper in the COMEX warehouse system increases the risk of shortages in other regions, thereby supporting global prices.

In the long term, the supply-demand balance is projected to tighten further. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts that the global refined copper market will shift from a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025 to a deficit of approximately 150,000 tonnes in 2026.

While demand continues to be supported by the energy transition, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), each electric vehicle consumes an average of 53.2 kg of copper, significantly higher than the 22.3 kg of vehicles with internal combustion engines. Wind and solar power projects require between 2,800 and 8,000 kg of copper per MW of capacity, compared to a maximum of approximately 1,500 kg/MW for traditional power plants. Signs of recovery from China are also contributing to an improved demand outlook. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) shows that the manufacturing PMI in December reached 50.1 points, exceeding 50 for the first time in eight months.

BMI research firm suggests that in 2026, demand from the green energy sector will largely offset the weakness in China's real estate market, thereby continuing to support copper prices amid a market sensitive to supply disruptions.

Source: https://vtv.vn/gia-dong-lap-ky-luc-moi-100260106093518978.htm