Amidst a volatile year for precious metals, marked by consecutive record-breaking price increases for gold and silver, the surge in global copper prices is becoming a focal point of attention for economists and strategists.
As of the end of December 2025, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) officially set a new historical peak, surpassing $12,000 per ton. With a cumulative growth of over 35% since the beginning of the year, the metal is heading towards its strongest annual growth cycle in the past 15 years, since the recovery period after the 2009 financial crisis.
The surge in copper prices is not simply a typical commodity fluctuation, but carries profound implications for the health of the global economy. Therefore, copper is affectionately nicknamed "Doctor Copper" by analysts.
Unlike gold – considered a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, or silver – a dual-purpose metal straddling the line between investment and industry, copper is inherently a purely industrial metal. Its value is not directly influenced by investor sentiment but is tied to the actual expansion of the economy.
Because copper plays a core role in power grid structures, infrastructure, industrial machinery, and energy systems, demand for copper has become the most accurate indicator of the functioning of the economy. According to Goldman Sachs Research, the current surge in copper prices is evidence of a period of strong industrial demand, especially as the metal is a direct beneficiary of massive investments in power grid and energy infrastructure to meet the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and the need to bolster global defense and security networks.
Analyzing the drivers behind this price surge, experts point to a complex interplay of structural supply and demand factors. On the supply side, key producing regions such as Chile and Indonesia are facing declining output due to challenging geological conditions and stringent environmental regulations.
Forecasts from JPMorgan indicate that the growth rate of copper mine supply in 2026 has been revised down to just 1.4%, equivalent to a shortfall of approximately 500,000 tons compared to initial estimates. This tightening of supply comes at a time when demand is booming due to the wave of large-scale AI data center construction. It is estimated that each hyperscale data infrastructure could consume up to 50,000 tons of copper for transmission and cooling systems, creating unprecedented demand pressure on the red metal market.
In addition, political variables and trade policies also act as important catalysts for price escalation. The imposition of new tariffs on imported copper by mid-2025 has significantly altered the global trade map, directly driving up input costs in major consumer markets.
The interplay between trade barriers and the energy demands of the technology sector has created a complex market environment where real economic values are pitted against marginal costs from policy. According to portfolio managers at Halbert Hargrove, the long-term consequences of this price surge will depend heavily on the ability of industries and governments to adapt to a new trading environment where strategic commodities like copper are not only production materials but also geopolitical weapons.
Regarding price prospects, JPMorgan Global Research expects copper prices to reach $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026 and maintain an annual average above $12,000 per ton.
Despite optimism about the upward trend, experts are still warning about long-term consequences. David Koch, portfolio manager at Halbert Hargrove, commented: “The interplay between tariffs and copper prices illustrates the complex dynamics of global trade. The long-term outcome will depend on the ability of governments and industries to adapt to this new trading environment.”
Source: https://vtv.vn/gia-dong-pha-dinh-lich-su-100251225144607728.htm
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