Population aging in Asia:

The latest population figures released in the first half of 2026 continue to sound the alarm in Asia, particularly East Asia, where the region's leading economies, which once benefited from a "golden demographic structure," are now facing the opposite reality: persistently low birth rates, rapidly aging populations, shrinking workforces, and an increasing need for immigrant labor.

Many countries are promoting improvements in people's living standards to address population aging. Photo: Singapore Ministry of Digital and Information Development.

Worrying signs continue to emerge.

2026 continues to see a series of new population reports showing that the demographic decline in East Asia remains irreversible. Earlier this week, the Japanese government announced that the total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime – had fallen by 0.01 percentage points compared to the previous year, to 1.14 children per woman. This marks the tenth consecutive year of decline, with Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae warning that this is "a silent emergency and a serious problem."

Previously, Japan's Ministry of Health , Labour and Welfare announced that the number of births in 2025 would only reach 705,809, a 2.1% decrease from the previous year and the lowest level since the country began compiling statistics in 1899. This also marks the tenth consecutive year of declining birth rates in Japan. In the early 2010s, Tokyo had projected that the annual birth rate would fall below 710,000 by around 2040, but the decline is now accelerating significantly.

Meanwhile, the gap between the number of deaths and the number of births is widening, causing Japan's population to shrink. This is one of the reasons why many localities, especially rural areas, are facing severe labor shortages, schools are closing, and many communities are at risk of disappearing.

In South Korea, the picture is somewhat more positive, but not enough to change the long-term trend. According to data released in February 2026, the number of children born in 2025 will only reach approximately 254,500, a 6.8% increase compared to the previous year. The fertility rate also increased from 0.75 to 0.80 children per woman. South Korea's birth rate in the first quarter of 2026 increased at the fastest rate since the country began compiling statistics, with the number of births increasing by nearly 15% compared to the same period the previous year.

Many experts believe this increase primarily reflects the impact of the population born in the early 1990s entering family-rearing and childbearing age, rather than a fundamental shift in social behavior. The pressures of housing costs, education , employment, and a high-intensity work culture continue to weigh heavily on young couples. The birth rate of 0.80 children per woman remains the lowest among developed countries. To maintain a stable population size, a country needs to achieve a birth rate of approximately 2.1 children per woman.

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While Japan and South Korea are the fastest-aging countries in East Asia, China is emerging as the most worrying case in terms of scale. A Chinese census conducted at the end of May showed that by November 2025, the population aged 65 and over will account for 15.87% of the total population of approximately 1.4 billion. The 0-14 age group will account for 15.25%. This marks the first time China has recorded a situation where the elderly outnumber children since 1949, when the country began compiling population statistics.

The population of Asia's number one economy has declined for the fourth consecutive year, with the number of children born in 2025 projected to be around 7.92 million, a 17% decrease from the previous year. The birth rate has fallen to 5.63 children per 1,000 people, the lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Notably, this downward trend continues despite Beijing's abolition of the one-child policy many years ago, allowing two and then three children, and implementing a series of financial support measures.

Similar situations have been observed in other economic hubs in the region such as Singapore, Taiwan (China), and Hong Kong (China). The total fertility rate for Singaporean citizens and permanent residents has fallen to a record low of 0.87 children per woman in 2025, despite the country implementing a series of policies to stem the decline, including cash bonuses for newborns, expanded paternity and parental leave, and relaxed regulations on egg freezing.

Efforts to escape the crisis trajectory.

Population decline is having increasingly evident consequences for the labor market. In Japan, the ratio of job openings to job seekers remains high across many sectors. Construction, logistics, accommodation services, agriculture, and elderly care are all facing persistent labor shortages. South Korea and Singapore are also experiencing similar trends. Businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit young workers, especially for positions requiring medium skills or physically demanding work.

Faced with increasing pressure, governments are simultaneously implementing multiple solutions. Singapore has just established a ministerial task force to address what it calls the “vital challenge” to the future of its population. At the same time, the government has announced initiatives to support marriage and childbirth worth nearly S$7 billion (approximately US$5.4 billion). Speaking on June 9th, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated that the island nation will focus on improving the quality of life for families rather than relying too heavily on measures to encourage childbirth. This is a sensible choice, given that many countries in the region are experiencing the reality of high child-rearing costs, life pressures leading to a sharp decline in marriage rates, and changes in youth attitudes that have rendered pro-childhood policies ineffective.

Meanwhile, South Korea remains the country investing most heavily in programs to support childbirth. Besides promoting measures to improve the working environment to help workers balance work and family life, Seoul has spent hundreds of billions of dollars over the past two decades on policies such as child subsidies, housing support for young couples, expanding the public daycare system, and extending maternity leave. However, many researchers recently argue that even if these fertility-boosting measures are effective, it will take many years to bring about a significant change in the size of the workforce.

In the short term, automation is the most viable solution. In fact, China, Japan, South Korea, and others are racing to develop industrial robots – especially humanoid robots. From automobile factories to elderly care facilities, robots and artificial intelligence are being deployed increasingly widely to reduce reliance on human labor. Beijing views the development of humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, and smart manufacturing as part of its strategy to address future labor shortages.

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However, many experts argue that technology can only partially compensate, thus immigration is seen as an unavoidable solution. Previously, East Asian countries generally maintained relatively cautious immigration policies to ensure cultural and social homogeneity. However, demographic pressures are forcing many governments to adjust their approach. Researchers suggest that Japan, South Korea, and even China may have to accept more foreign workers in the coming years if they want to maintain their current economic growth rates. This trend will, of course, bring new challenges related to social integration, education, housing, and ensuring equal opportunities for foreign workers.

Looking at the long term, many Asian countries are entering a historic demographic transition, in which population aging risks becoming a drag on growth. Therefore, the biggest challenge now is no longer how to avoid population aging, but how to adapt to an aging society while maintaining competitiveness, economic growth, and quality of life for its citizens. This will be the strategic problem shaping the future of the entire region for decades to come.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/gia-hoa-dan-so-o-chau-a-no-luc-thoat-quy-dao-khung-hoang-1160323.html