Constants and variables

Affirming the “constants” among countless “variables” was the focus of the Quad Summit on September 21 in Wilmington, Delaware (USA). Commentary by The World and Vietnam Newspaper.

US President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a Quad meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, May 20, 2023. (Source: Reuters)

Since its first meeting in 2021, the Quad Summit (including the US, India, Japan and Australia) has been a hot topic.

Countless variables

The first variable is the timing and location of the summit. After two previous summits in Japan, both in May, this time the summit will take place in September. More specifically, instead of taking place in India as discussed, the parties agreed to hold it in Wilmington, Delaware, and then attend the UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

However, this is no random choice, as Wilmington is President Joe Biden’s hometown. It is not uncommon for high-ranking leaders to choose their hometowns or private homes to host foreign leaders or host major international events.

In 2017, former President Donald Trump had many friendly exchanges with the late Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on the golf course at his family's Mar-a-Lago resort. Six years later, Japan hosted the Group of Seven (G7) Summit in Hiroshima, the hometown of current Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. For its part, the White House said: "(This choice) reflects (President Joe Biden's) deep personal relationships with each of the Quad leaders and the importance of the Quad to all of us."

Second, this is also the last conference attended by Mr. Joe Biden and Mr. Kishida Fumio. The current US President has ceded his election rights to his “deputy” Kamala Harris.

For his part, Prime Minister Kishida will not run for the position of President of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The future of these two positions and the foreign policy of the US and Japan after 2024 are still big questions. Even if Ms. Harris wins, there is no confirmation that she will continue Mr. Joe Biden's commitment to the Quad. For Japan, things are even more unpredictable when there are many potential faces in the LDP, with quite different views on foreign affairs.

Finally, this Quad Summit takes place in the context of a complex and volatile global and regional situation. More than two and a half years after the outbreak, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown no signs of cooling down, especially with the recent series of clashes in Kursk. The situation in the Gaza Strip is complicated, with the relationship between the US and its close ally Israel witnessing signs of cracks, while the Houthi faction in Yemen has become bolder in its attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

In the Indo-Pacific, US-China relations still follow the trend of “cooperation when possible, competition when appropriate, and confrontation when necessary”. Lai Thanh Duc’s appointment as the head of Taiwan (China) has not been able to cool down the situation on both sides of the strait. Fierce fighting in Myanmar and protests to change the government in Bangladesh threaten to spread. North Korea continues to test missiles with high frequency; the East Sea still has many potential tensions. This situation requires all four countries to continuously adjust, build, and implement policies.

President Joe Biden will hold bilateral meetings with Quad leaders at his home in Wilmington and an informal summit and dinner at Archmere Academy, a Catholic high school where he attended.

The leaders will also participate in the "Cancer Moonshot" event at the school, an initiative spearheaded by Mr. Biden to find vaccine-based immunotherapy for cancer.

Constants and progress

In that context, affirming the constants amid the myriad of variables will be the focus of the Quad on September 21. First, the five Summits maintained from 2021 in different forms, along with eight Foreign Ministerial meetings, affirm the four countries' strong commitment to the region.

In addition, the last-minute change of venue and the choice of Joe Biden’s hometown as the Summit venue, months before the leader leaves office, reflects the US’s core role in the Quad, which will be maintained as long as the country does not abandon its commitment, as former President Donald Trump did when the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Ultimately, the White House stressed, the summit will focus on “strengthening strategic commonalities between countries, advancing a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, and delivering substantial benefits to regional partners in key areas.” In the previous four summits, Indo-Pacific regional security, climate change and sustainable development, economic security, and technological cooperation all appeared; this time is no exception.

Accordingly, in terms of security, the Quad is said to be promoting a plan for coordination and joint patrols in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, the parties will discuss in depth the construction of an Open Radio Network (Open RAN), an infrastructure for maritime communication systems that minimizes dependence on certain companies in case of supply chain disruptions.

In the health sector, the Quad can launch joint research and cooperation initiatives to treat some incurable diseases based on the experience of cooperation in preventing the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of technology, the Quad will discuss the possibility of implementing projects to support farmers to improve productivity through the application of artificial intelligence.

It is not impossible that the parties will approve the organization of the first meeting of Ministers of Trade and Industry. If realized, this will be a step towards deeper institutionalization of the Quad, as the administration of President Joe Biden had hoped.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thuong-dinh-bo-tu-hang-so-va-bien-so-286866.html