Ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Iran, on June 11 - Photo: AP
On June 15, Washington and Tehran confirmed they had agreed on the terms of a peace memorandum, which is scheduled to be formally signed on June 19 in Switzerland.
This agreement is expected to extend the fragile ceasefire reached on April 8 for another 60 days, creating a stepping stone for both sides to continue negotiations on a long-term document.
The market breathed a sigh of relief.
According to the Financial Times , citing informed sources, one of the most important provisions of the agreement is that Iran will gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz – the route through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas is transported. Tehran committed to clearing mines within the first 30 days and offering free passage for 60 days.
In return, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and temporarily suspend sanctions targeting the country's oil exports.
Immediately after the two countries confirmed reaching an agreement, global markets rallied. In Asia – the region most heavily affected by the lockdown of the Strait of Hormuz – the Nikkei 225 index (Japan) surged to a record high with a 5% increase. The Kospi index in South Korea also rose nearly 6%.
Shares of Japan's two largest airlines, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, also saw strong gains. In the West, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures signaled Wall Street would open the June 15 session with a 1.2% increase.
Conversely, Brent crude oil prices plummeted 4.98%, falling below $83 per barrel. This represents a significant drop from its peak of over $118 per barrel at the end of April, nearing the $72.48 per barrel mark recorded on February 27th (just before the US-Israel attack on Iran). Even so, the current price remains considerably higher than the $60 per barrel mark seen in early January 2026.
In fact, the oil "bottleneck" had begun to ease even before the agreement was announced. On June 12, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the flow of oil and fuel through the strait had reached 7 million barrels per day, equivalent to about half the volume that had been stranded when hostilities broke out.
JPMorgan Bank also estimated that the average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz in June reached 5.1 million barrels, a significant improvement compared to the 2.2 million and 2.9 million barrels per day in March and May, respectively.
Nevertheless, the next 60 days remain fraught with uncertainties. The Financial Times quoted an anonymous diplomat as saying: "Those who consider this agreement the final outcome are making a huge mistake."
There are still many risks.
Despite initial market enthusiasm, history shows that energy logistics infrastructure is not something that can be developed overnight. Therefore, most analysts remain cautious about short-term prospects.
Helima Croft, Global Director of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, draws parallels between the current situation and the Red Sea crisis. She points out that even though the US has reached an agreement with the Houthi forces for 2025, shipping traffic through this route remains 56% lower than before the conflict. Many major shipping companies remain wary of the risks and continue to choose alternative routes.
The biggest challenge now lies in clearing the congestion. Ms. Croft noted that restoring shipping capacity will take many weeks because coordinating ships takes a very long time. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz saw approximately 130 ships passing through daily.
To date, more than 500 cargo ships remain stranded in the Gulf after three months of fighting. With an average commercial transit time of approximately 8 hours per trip, managing this backlog of ships requires extremely close coordination.
Major maritime organizations such as the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and Bimco have warned that if ships enter the strait en masse without control, congestion will worsen, especially given the anticipated limitations in military surveillance capabilities there.
Looking further ahead, energy expert Saul Kavonic from MST Financial predicts that the recovery of logistics chains, the repair of damaged energy infrastructure, and the trend of countries replenishing their strategic reserves will keep the oil market in a state of scarcity until 2027.
Politically, the foundation of this agreement remains very fragile. In practice, it appears to be driven more by the domestic needs of both Washington and Tehran than by genuine understanding or long-term commitment. The future of the ceasefire depends entirely on the upcoming nuclear negotiations – a process with no guarantee of success.
Expert Sanam Vakil (Chatham House Institute) likened the current situation to "both sides holding each other hostage. If this stalemate lasts longer than 60 days, the situation will become very dangerous." Sharing this view, analyst Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group (ICG) concluded: "This agreement only stops the bleeding, it cannot heal the wound."
A ray of hope
Despite low political confidence, observers assess the likelihood of the parties immediately returning to military intervention as very low.
Under the impact of the conflict, gasoline prices in the US have risen sharply, raising serious concerns about inflation. The prospect of renewed conflict could completely tip the balance further in favor of the Democratic Party, creating a real risk of the Republican Party losing control of Congress.
This is something that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned about publicly. During his first term, after the Republican Party lost the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, Trump was thrust into the impeachment vortex and was unable to fully focus on his agenda.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also about to face elections that will decide his political future and legacy. Losing the support of the US president would negatively impact his competitiveness. Therefore, he is also believed to be unwilling to publicly antagonize Trump further, especially after the White House occupant has repeatedly expressed anger and criticism towards him in recent weeks.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/khoi-thong-hormuz-con-nhieu-trac-tro-20260616081002667.htm
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