New scenario for the economy

Not only achieving a growth rate of "8% or more" as before, the Government has set a higher and more specific target for this year, which is striving for GDP growth at 8.3-8.5%.

To boost growth, it is necessary to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital. In the photo: Construction of Bien Hoa - Vung Tau Expressway. Photo: Le Toan

New scenario

The Government's great determination to promote economic growth in 2025 is demonstrated by the fact that in less than half a month, two online conferences between the Government and localities were held: on July 5, a meeting was held to discuss the socio -economic situation in the first 6 months of the year and solutions for the last 6 months of the year; on July 16, a discussion was held on the economic growth scenario in 2025 and tasks and solutions to achieve the growth target in 2025.

And between the two conferences, there is a big difference in the economic growth target for the year. If at the previous conference, the Government determined to strive to successfully complete the socio-economic development targets for 2025, especially the annual growth rate of "8% or more", then at the following conference, the target is "growth of 8.3-8.5%" - clearer, more specific and higher than the previous general figure.

Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang, when reporting to the Government on the socio-economic situation, presented two economic growth scenarios for the third quarter, the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025. Accordingly, with scenario 1 (GDP growth for the whole year reaching 8%), growth in the third quarter must reach 8.3%, and in the fourth quarter it must reach 8.5% (0.1 percentage point higher than the scenario proposed in Resolution 154/NQ-CP).

As for scenario 2 (GDP growth for the whole year reaching 8.3-8.5%), growth in the third quarter will reach 8.9-9.2% over the same period (0.6-0.9 percentage points higher than the scenario of Resolution 154/NQ-CP); growth in the fourth quarter will reach 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1% higher). "Growth scenarios depend on the effectiveness of implementing policies and solutions, especially in mobilizing and using resources for growth," Minister Nguyen Van Thang explained.

In scenario 1, the growth drivers for the last 6 months of the year are determined to include total social investment capital in the last 6 months of the year of about 108 billion USD; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) increasing by about 12% or more; and total import-export turnover of goods in 2025 increasing by 16% or more.

Meanwhile, in scenario 2, the total investment capital implemented in the whole society in the last 6 months of the year is about 111 billion USD, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) increases by 13% or more, and total import-export turnover in 2025 increases by 17% or more.

Offering 2 scenarios, the Ministry of Finance recommended that the Government and the Prime Minister direct and manage ministries, branches and localities to strive to implement scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more. This recommendation has been approved by the Government.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, speaking at the Government's online conference with localities, emphasized the need to strive to achieve a growth rate of about 8.3-8.5% in 2025, creating momentum, force, spirit, and a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, thereby achieving two 100-year development strategy goals.

Can't help it

Although the economy has achieved positive results in the first half of 2025, with GDP growth reaching 7.52%, the growth target of over 8% this year has always been affirmed as "a big challenge". Therefore, the question is, is the growth target of 8.3-8.5% feasible?

And the answer emphasized by the Prime Minister is: "The economic growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 is inevitable and not an impossible goal."

If it is “inevitable not to do so”, what will be the solution? “We must focus on implementing three strategic breakthroughs, the ‘four pillars’; strongly promote growth drivers to achieve the growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 and 10% or more in 2026,” Minister Nguyen Van Thang emphasized.

According to information, a new resolution replacing Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP will be issued. In this resolution, new “growth quota” levels will be assigned to localities and state-owned corporations and groups. For example, Hanoi must grow by 8.5% (0.5 percentage points higher), Ho Chi Minh City must grow by 8.5% (0.4 percentage points higher), Quang Ninh must grow by 12.5% (1 percentage point higher), Thai Nguyen by 8% (0.5 percentage points higher)…

In fact, the Vietnamese economy has a lot of room for growth. That is why recently, many organizations have raised their growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025. For example, CitiGroup raised it from 6.6% to 7%; Maybank raised it to 7.3%... UOB Bank also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam from 6% to 6.9%, after confirming that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter far exceeded forecasts.

“In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.52% year-on-year, the strongest growth in the first half of the year since 2011,” UOB experts said, adding that Vietnam’s outstanding growth in the first half of the year was mainly due to export activities - boosted before the tax deadline.

Highlighting the positive signals from the US tariff policy towards Vietnam and after taking into account the impacts on production and foreign investment flows, UOB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters at around 6.4%, and the full year will increase by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.

BIDV Bank's research team also raised Vietnam's economic growth forecast to 7.5-7.7% (baseline scenario) and 7.8-8.1% (positive scenario)...

There is a positive trend. The Ministry of Finance, when submitting a report to the Government, emphasized the advantages and opportunities for the economy coming from new, breakthrough regulations, "unleashing and unleashing resources" for the economy; from new driving forces such as the "four pillars"; from the two-level local government officially operating from July 1, 2025, which is the basis for localities to focus on exploiting new development space; from opportunities when international and domestic consumption seasons are promoted in the second half of the year...

However, to promote growth, according to Minister Nguyen Van Thang, it is necessary to implement many solutions, including promoting disbursement of public investment capital and social investment capital in general, promoting consumption, effectively exploiting the domestic market, promoting exports... Along with that, it is very important to continue implementing "growth contracts with localities".

“Localities need to achieve a growth rate in 2025 higher than the target in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially leading localities and growth drivers of the whole country,” Minister Nguyen Van Thang emphasized.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/kich-ban-moi-cho-nen-kinh-te-d334034.html