A new scenario for the economy.

Instead of just aiming for a growth rate of "8% or higher" as before, the government has set a higher and more specific target for this year: striving for GDP growth of 8.3-8.5%.

To boost growth, it is necessary to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital. In the photo: Construction of the Bien Hoa - Vung Tau expressway. Photo: Le Toan

New script

The government demonstrated a strong determination to boost economic growth in 2025, with two online government-locality conferences held in less than half a month: on July 5th, discussing the socio-economic situation in the first six months and solutions for the last six months; and on July 16th, discussing the economic growth scenario for 2025 and the tasks and solutions to achieve the growth target for 2025.

And between the two conferences, there was a significant difference in the economic growth targets for the year. While at the previous conference, the government aimed to successfully achieve the socio-economic development targets for 2025, especially an annual growth rate of "8% or higher," at the subsequent conference, the target was "8.3-8.5% growth"—clearer, more specific, and higher than the previous general figure.

Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang, in his report to the Government on the socio-economic situation, presented two scenarios for economic growth in the third and fourth quarters and for the whole year of 2025. According to scenario 1 (annual GDP growth reaching 8%), growth in the third quarter must reach 8.3%, and in the fourth quarter 8.5% (0.1 percentage point higher than the scenario outlined in Resolution 154/NQ-CP).

As for scenario 2 (annual GDP growth reaching 8.3-8.5%), Q3 growth would reach 8.9-9.2% year-on-year (0.6-0.9 percentage points higher than the scenario in Resolution 154/NQ-CP); Q4 growth would reach 9.1-9.5% (0.7-1.1 percentage points higher). “The growth scenarios depend on the effectiveness of implementing policies and solutions, especially in mobilizing and utilizing resources for growth,” Minister Nguyen Van Thang explained.

Under Scenario 1, the growth drivers for the last six months of the year are identified as including total social investment of approximately US$108 billion; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) increasing by approximately 12% or more; and total import and export turnover of goods in 2025 increasing by 16% or more.

Meanwhile, under scenario 2, total social investment in the last six months of the year is approximately $111 billion, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) increase by 13% or more, and total import and export turnover in 2025 increases by 17% or more.

Two scenarios were presented, but the Ministry of Finance recommended that the Government and the Prime Minister direct ministries, sectors, and localities to strive to implement scenario 2 (8.3-8.5%), creating momentum for growth in 2026 to reach 10% or more. This recommendation was approved by the Government.

Speaking at the online Government Conference with localities, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized the goal of striving for a growth rate of approximately 8.3-8.5% in 2025, creating momentum, strength, and a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, thereby achieving the two strategic goals of the 100-year development plan.

It's impossible not to do it.

Although the economy achieved positive results in the first half of 2025, with GDP growth reaching 7.52%, the target of over 8% growth this year is consistently stated as "a major challenge". Therefore, the question is, is the target of 8.3-8.5% growth achievable?

And the answer, as emphasized by the Prime Minister, is: "The economic growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 is achievable and not an impossible goal."

If it is absolutely necessary, what would the solution be? "We must focus on implementing the three strategic breakthroughs, the 'four pillars'; strongly promote growth drivers to achieve the growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 and 10% or more in 2026," Minister Nguyen Van Thang emphasized.

Information indicates that a new resolution replacing Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP will be issued. This resolution will assign new "growth targets" to localities and state-owned corporations and enterprises. For example, Hanoi must achieve a growth rate of 8.5% (0.5 percentage points higher), Ho Chi Minh City 8.5% (0.4 percentage points higher), Quang Ninh 12.5% ​​(1 percentage point higher), Thai Nguyen 8% (0.5 percentage points higher), and so on.

In fact, the Vietnamese economy has significant room for growth. That's why many organizations have recently raised their growth forecasts for Vietnam in 2025. For example, CitiGroup raised its forecast from 6.6% to 7%; Maybank raised it to 7.3%... UOB Bank also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam from 6% to 6.9%, after confirming that Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter far exceeded its forecast.

“In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.52% year-on-year. This is the strongest first-half growth rate since 2011,” UOB experts noted, adding that Vietnam’s exceptional growth in the first half of the year was primarily driven by export activity – boosted ahead of the tariff imposition deadline.

Highlighting positive signals from the US tariff policy towards Vietnam and after accounting for the impacts on production and foreign investment flows, UOB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters to reach approximately 6.4%, and the full year will increase by an additional 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous forecast.

The research team at BIDV Bank also raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 7.5-7.7% (base scenario) and 7.8-8.1% (optimistic scenario)...

The positive trend is evident. The Ministry of Finance, in its report to the Government, emphasized the advantages and opportunities for the economy stemming from new, groundbreaking regulations that "unleash and unlock resources" for the economy; from new driving forces such as the "four pillars"; from the official operation of the two-tiered local government system from July 1, 2025, providing a basis for localities to focus on exploiting new development opportunities; and from the opportunities presented by the boosted international and domestic consumption seasons in the second half of the year…

However, to boost growth, according to Minister Nguyen Van Thang, many solutions are needed, including accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital and total social investment capital in general, promoting consumption, effectively exploiting the domestic market, and promoting exports… Along with that, it is very important to continue implementing the "growth quota system for localities".

"Localities need to achieve a higher growth rate in 2025 than the target set in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, especially the leading localities and growth drivers of the whole country," Minister Nguyen Van Thang emphasized.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/kich-ban-moi-cho-nen-kinh-te-d334034.html