What to buy to make a profit after Tet?

Buy gold waiting for God of Fortune day?

The price of gold bars last weekend at Saigon Jewelry Company - SJC was VND75.6 million/tael for buying and VND78.1 million for selling. Compared to a week before, each tael of gold bar increased by VND1.4 million. Meanwhile, SJC's 4-digit 9 gold rings were bought at VND63.2 million and sold at VND64.4 million, an increase of VND450,000.

Buy gold rings and wait for the opportunity to increase the price on the occasion of God of Wealth's day after Tet Giap Thin 2024

To seize the opportunity after the Lunar New Year, investors can consider buying right before this holiday but absolutely do not use borrowed money. Some sectors that I think have the potential to increase are exports, public investment, industrial real estate.

__Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan (General Director of Dong A Bank Securities Company)

Currently, each tael of SJC gold bar is 13.7 million VND higher than the same brand of gold rings. The difference in buying and selling price of SJC gold rings continues to be maintained at 1.2 million VND/tael while the gap for gold bars is 2.5 million VND.

If calculated in 2 consecutive weeks, SJC gold bars have increased by nearly 2 million VND per tael, while 4-digit 9 gold rings of the same brand have increased by 550,000 VND. However, those who bought gold bars 2 weeks ago will still lose more than 1 million VND per tael if they sell them because the difference between buying and selling prices is often 3 million VND. Meanwhile, those who bought SJC 4-digit 9 gold rings during the same period will lose about 750,000 VND per tael because the difference between buying and selling prices is lower.

The gold market is quiet but after the Lunar New Year holiday comes the God of Wealth Day (the 10th day of the Lunar New Year) and usually the gold price increases during this time when demand is higher. So should you buy gold before the Lunar New Year?

According to financial expert Phan Dung Khanh, the price of SJC gold bars will fluctuate in the near future, which is an unknown because the market is waiting for the State Bank's management policy. In fact, at the end of 2023, when the Government requested to check and review the gold market management policy to avoid the situation of prices being far from the world , SJC gold bars turned to decrease sharply. Therefore, currently no one can predict how SJC gold bars will be because they do not follow the fluctuations of the world.

Many people believe that gold bars are risky, but buying gold rings with 4 numbers 9 will give you a chance to make a profit, waiting for the price to increase on the God of Fortune day. However, in recent years, companies and stores that trade in gold, silver, and gemstones often have the "trick" of only increasing the selling price, increasing little or not increasing the buying price. That leads to the difference between the buying and selling price of gold rings being able to be pulled up higher than the current level. This is the biggest risk for gold buyers today.

"Buying a 4-number 9 gold ring now, if you only hold it for the short term and wait for the God of Wealth, unless the world gold price increases sharply, you will make a profit. But in the first quarter of 2024, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has expressed its stance of not reducing interest rates and the probability of this happening is only in June, so the precious metal will not fluctuate much. Therefore, buying gold for short-term investment is also quite risky," Mr. Phan Dung Khanh shared.

Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City, said that usually the price of gold will increase near the God of Wealth Day due to high demand. The demand for physical gold at that time is not only increasing in Vietnam but also in China. The consumption in the world's most populous country also affects the fluctuations in the world gold price. Therefore, when demand increases, the possibility of gold prices also increases. Particularly in Vietnam, buyers who want to make a profit during the God of Wealth Day should only buy 4-number 9 gold rings because the difference with the world price and the buying and selling prices are lower than gold bars, so the risk is less.

Actively surfing industry stocks

While there are still many conflicting opinions about gold, experts point out another investment channel that can bring profits: stocks. To "surf" stocks in the next 1-2 months, the most important thing is to choose stocks.

You can choose stocks that have not increased in January to make a profit.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan analyzed: Investing in stocks also has the opportunity to make profits, but not too big if you only intend to "surf" for 1-2 months. The stock market in January has increased quite a bit, many bank stocks, securities, and industrial park real estate stocks have increased continuously, so the probability of a short-term adjustment will be high. Currently, the interest rate level is still maintained at a low level, which is positive news supporting stocks.

However, the VN-Index is currently hovering around 1,170 points. If investors expect the market to reach 1,300 points by the end of the first quarter of 2024, they should buy aggressively. If investors only expect to reach 1,200 points, the increase is not too high, so they should be much more cautious. In particular, it is possible to consider choosing only a few stocks that have not increased in the first month of this year but belong to industries with good growth opportunities.

Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan, General Director of Dong A Bank Securities Company, was more optimistic when analyzing that in the past 10 years, stocks have increased after the Lunar New Year holiday. Because of the pre-holiday psychology, many investors from organizations to individuals will withdraw money from stocks to spend. At the same time, because the Tet holiday lasts more than a week, investors will not use borrowed capital because they have to pay higher interest rates. Not to mention, investors are also worried that during the holiday, if the world stock market fluctuates strongly, after Tet, the Vietnamese market will also change in contrast to their forecast...

Therefore, right after Tet, when investors return to trading, liquidity will increase, and many stocks will also follow the upward trend. Not to mention, at the beginning of this year, many positive information also supported stocks such as low interest rates, export enterprises also had some signals of increased orders or the Government assigned targets for public investment disbursement...

"To seize the opportunity after the Lunar New Year, investors can consider buying right before this holiday but absolutely not using borrowed money. Some sectors, in my opinion, have the potential to increase, such as exports, public investment, and industrial park real estate," said Mr. Tuan.

Financial expert Phan Dung Khanh also believes that stocks have a chance to increase in the first quarter of 2024, but not much. Because according to the announcement of the State Bank, the amount of money deposited by people into the banking system in 2023 reached a record level. In particular, the amount of cash still put into banks in the last 2 months of 2023 is also quite high even though savings interest rates have dropped sharply. Therefore, the possibility of cash flow being withdrawn from banks to switch to investment channels such as stocks in the first month of this year will not be large.

"Stocks will only increase from mid-2024 when the world economy clearly recovers and the US begins to reduce interest rates. From there, Vietnam's export activities will also recover, domestic consumption demand will also gradually return...", Mr. Khanh predicted.

Real estate has no short-term opportunities

Regarding the familiar and traditional investment channel of Vietnamese people, real estate, financial experts have a common opinion that the market is still facing many difficulties and cannot increase again in the short term like the first quarter of 2024.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan believes that the real estate market must be a story of 2-3 years from now, not in 2024. However, if investors have capital, they can still consider buying this year because real estate prices are at rock bottom. But when the market will escape this bottom will be a long-term story.

Sharing the same view, expert Phan Dung Khanh commented that in the first two quarters of this year, real estate was still the worst channel. But in the long term, this could be the best investment channel.

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