Russia should thank the US-Iran conflict.

GD&TĐ - The US-Iran conflict has caused oil prices to surge to over $86 per barrel, leading to a significant increase in Russia's budget and a reduction in the state budget deficit.

Báo Giáo dục và Thời đại•08/06/2026

According to Russian officials, there was a breakthrough in the country's May budget, with revenues exceeding expenditures and the treasury deficit shrinking sharply, helping the Russian federal budget gradually return to normal.

Economist Nikita Komarov pointed out that in January and February, when Urals oil prices were at $40-45 per barrel, the Russian state treasury faced a year-end deficit of up to 8 trillion rubles ($110 billion).

At the beginning of the year, Russia's state budget deficit threatened to spiral out of control, but just months after the US- Iran conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing Ural oil prices to surge and non-oil revenues to begin to improve, the problem was resolved.

Mr. Komarov pointed out that the key indicators for May were as follows: Revenue reached 3,060 billion rubles (nearly $41.9 billion, a 24.5% increase compared to the same period last year), while budget expenditure was 3,199 billion rubles (nearly $43.8 billion, a 21.8% increase compared to the same period last year).

Although the budget deficit remains at 139 billion rubles (1.9 billion USD), it is a more favorable situation compared to the same period last year, when it was 168 billion rubles (2.3 billion USD).

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A major contributor to this achievement was the price of Ural crude oil in rubles, which was 6,315 rubles per barrel (equivalent to $86.4 per barrel), a significant increase from the expected level of 5,440 rubles ($74.5 per barrel).

Meanwhile, non-oil and gas sectors also achieved very noteworthy results, with the main contributing factor being a 28.6% increase in total value-added tax (VAT) revenue, reaching 1,391 billion rubles (US$19.1 billion).

It appears that this tax increase is only yielding short-term results, as the Laffer curve has not yet formed, meaning there is no immediate impact of higher taxes reducing revenue.

Although budget spending increased by 21.8% year-on-year, this was again due to pre-funding for public procurement, so theoretically, this rate should decrease in the coming months.

In summary, economist Nikita Komarov emphasized that the budget deficit at the end of May was much lower than the same period last year and has the potential to decrease further, amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which keeps oil prices stable at high levels.

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