The government's strong determination, along with synchronized solutions and positive signals from export markets and FDI resources, are bright colors creating favorable momentum for Vietnam's economy to accelerate in 2025. This year is of particular importance as it marks the end of the 2021-2025 five-year plan, preparing the country to enter a new era.
"Southeast Asia's Growth Star"
In 2024, the Vietnamese economy demonstrated outstanding strength by achieving and surpassing all 15/15 socio-economic targets. In particular, the estimated annual economic growth reached over 7%, exceeding the National Assembly's target of 6-6.5%, placing Vietnam among the few countries with high growth rates in the region and the world .
Notably, with a growth rate exceeding 7% in 2024, the Vietnamese economy has surpassed all previous forecasts from international financial institutions.
In its 2024 macroeconomic outlook report, HSBC called Vietnam the "growth star" of Southeast Asia. The 7% figure represents the highest growth rate among the six largest economies in Southeast Asia (along with Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand).
In its 2024 year-end report, the Ministry of Planning and Investment affirmed that Vietnam's economy had an impressive year of growth, reflecting not only the stability of the economy but also demonstrating Vietnam's resilience to global fluctuations.
"Vietnam continues to be a bright spot in the otherwise bleak picture of the global economy," affirmed Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Tri Dung .
Specifically, exports continue to be the main driver of economic growth, with the total value of goods exports and imports nationwide in 2024 estimated at US$782.33 billion, the highest ever. The country recorded a trade surplus estimated at US$23.53 billion.
Vietnam continues to be an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), with total FDI attracted in the first 11 months of 2024 estimated at nearly US$31.4 billion; implemented FDI capital is estimated at approximately US$21.7 billion, an increase of 7.1% compared to the same period.
The government's high goals and determination.
The year 2025 holds special significance for Vietnam's economy as it marks the end of the 2021-2025 five-year plan. This is a crucial time to assess the results of achieving the set goals and to create momentum for the next phase of development.
Female workers at Samsung
Currently, the National Assembly has set a growth target for the Government in 2025 of approximately 6.5-7%, striving to reach 7-7.5%. However, at the National Conference summarizing Resolution No. 18, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh set an ambitious target of GDP growth exceeding 8% in 2025, paving the way for a breakthrough period of strong double-digit growth in 2026-2030.
Government leaders acknowledge that achieving double-digit growth is a challenge. However, this will create the foundation for a rapid acceleration in the 2026-2030 period, enabling the country to enter a new era – an era of national progress.
"Ministries, departments, and localities must be decisive in achieving the set goals," the Prime Minister emphasized, adding that each unit must be "a pioneering force that unleashes all potential to lead the country steadily forward."
To achieve these goals, the Government has set out a series of important tasks for 2025, such as maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation at below 4%; maintaining credit growth above 15% with capital flows directed towards priority sectors, production and business activities, etc.
Localities are assigned a target of achieving a minimum GRDP (gross regional product) growth of 8-10%, with growth poles like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and key economic regions needing to set higher targets to affirm their leading role.
The Prime Minister also directed that the disbursement of public investment capital, especially for key national projects, will be accelerated from the beginning of 2025. Budget revenue is expected to be about 10% higher than in 2024, and recurrent expenditures will be drastically reduced.
Specifically, the increased state budget revenue in 2024 will be prioritized for the North-South East Expressway project and a number of other projects that have needs in the coming year.
In addition, the government also aims to strongly develop the financial and capital markets to mobilize resources for the economy, striving to upgrade the stock market. It will continue to remove legal obstacles and difficulties for the real estate market.
Many positive signs for the women's labor market.
With impressive results in 2024 and the strong determination of the Government, experts are optimistic about Vietnam's ability to maintain strong economic growth in 2025.
At the Vietnam Economic Pulse 2024 forum, when assessing the prospects of the Vietnamese economy in 2025, Mr. Nguyen Huu Tho, Head of the Economic Analysis and Forecasting Department of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), Ministry of Planning and Investment, predicted that the business sector would flourish because orders in 2024 were very good compared to 2023. Continuing this momentum, the production and business activities of enterprises will improve.
Regarding attracting FDI resources, the trend of FDI flows into ASEAN and Asia will continue into 2025. The domestic market in 2025 is not expected to experience significant changes in purchasing power because the income of Vietnamese people has not yet seen a breakthrough.
The number of international tourists visiting Vietnam is expected to increase significantly, but the increase will not be uniform, nor will it keep pace with the contribution to GDP growth. The export market in 2025 is projected to continue growing at a fairly strong rate, similar to this year.
Furthermore, the development of transportation infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and institutional reforms are expected to continue to be bright spots in Vietnam's economic growth picture in 2025.
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Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, commented that in 2025, the Vietnamese economy will have positive factors such as monetary policy actively supporting production and business activities, with credit growth reaching approximately 12.5% by the end of November 2024.
While deposit interest rates have risen, lending interest rates have still decreased by 1 percentage point since the beginning of the year, which is a favorable factor supporting economic recovery.
Professor Hoang Van Cuong, a member of the National Assembly's Finance and Budget Committee, shared that Vietnam is returning to a period of strong growth similar to the years 2016-2019. Besides the impetus from foreign investment flows and the effective exploitation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), recently passed draft laws will also remove bottlenecks and create momentum for development.
Vietnam is among the countries with the highest rates of women's participation in the labor force in the world, with women accounting for 72% of the total number of women of working age.
It can be seen that among the drivers of economic growth in 2025, the female workforce plays an important role, as FDI enterprises, export sectors (textiles, footwear, etc.), and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries have a relatively high proportion of female workers.
Sharing his outlook on the market in 2025, Mr. Cao Huu Hieu, General Director of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) - a company with a large female workforce - said that many member enterprises currently have enough orders to last until the end of the first quarter of 2025, and some units even have orders until May 2025.
Vinatex forecasts that Vietnam's export turnover in 2025 will grow by 5%-6% compared to 2024, reaching approximately US$45.5 - US$46 billion.
Similarly, as a sector with a large female workforce, agricultural exports have consistently increased year after year for many consecutive years. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development announced that it has approved the coffee replanting project for the period 2021-2025.
The target for the 2021-2025 period is to replant and graft nearly 110,000 hectares, with export turnover expected to grow by 12%. Regarding Vietnamese fruit and vegetable exports, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association predicts the sector will bring in approximately 8 billion USD. For seafood, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export aims for 11-12 billion USD in 2025...
The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the Vietnamese economy will reach a size of US$506 billion by 2025, rising to 33rd place globally. According to data from the Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEBR), Vietnam's GDP in 2024 surpassed US$450 billion, moving up one position from 2023 to 34th place worldwide. CEBR believes that the Vietnamese economy will continue to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with an average annual growth rate of 5.8% for the period 2025-2029.
Source: https://pnvnweb.dev.cnnd.vn/trien-vong-kinh-te-viet-nam-2025-nhieu-gam-mau-sang-tao-da-can-dich-20241231212257299.htm
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