The demand for land has increased sharply
According to Tien Phong, according to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, in the past 9 years (2015 - 2023), land investment has a profit rate of 166%. This number is lower than stock channels (203%), gold (195%) and apartments (203%). However, the land segment still has a higher profit margin than some other investment channels, such as savings channels (138%) and foreign currencies (111%).
Batdongsan.com.vn's real estate consumer sentiment index (CSS) for the first half of 2024 shows that, out of 1.000 survey participants, 65% said they would continue to buy real estate in the future. 2024. Of this 65%, about 1/3 of people are interested in land.
Land products priced under 2 billion VND/plot attracted the largest amount of interest, accounting for 42%; Price 2 - 4 billion VND ranked second with 24% of interest; The price range of 4 - 6 billion VND accounts for 10%. The remaining two price ranges of 6 - 10 billion VND and over 15 billion VND have interest levels of 9% and 15%, respectively.
Mr. Le Bao Long, Strategy Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, said that due to the "inch of land, inch of gold" mindset, the need to own real estate and accumulate assets of Vietnamese people is very large. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that land will receive the most attention from consumers in 2024.
Land and project land in two markets, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, have increased interest more strongly than apartments.
The demand for land has increased sharply. Illustration photo from the internet
However, this unit forecasts that it will take at least the second quarter of 2024 for the land market to recover demand. This segment will not be as hot as before. Transactions mainly only appear in certain areas and have not spread widely. It will not be until 2025 onwards that the land market will enter a cycle of price increases.
Meanwhile, according to January 1 data from Batdongsan.com.vn, the number of land searches in Hanoi increased by 2024%, project land increased by 110% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the number of searches for apartments in Hanoi increased by 77%. Similarly, in Ho Chi Minh City, search demand increased from 71 - 71% for land plots and project land and only increased by 73% for apartments.
In the first months of the year, many successfully completed land transactions priced under 2 billion VND were recorded. People buying and selling land in this period are people who have just matured their savings and have a capital of about 1 - 2 billion VND.
According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of Batdongsan.com.vn in the Southern region, a survey of more than 10 land investment brokerage enterprises in Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Long An showed that the number of land transactions increased. Most of them focus on plots of land with standard legal regulations, priced under 2 billion VND, located within a radius of 60 km around Ho Chi Minh City.
Will land prices increase rapidly?
According to Market Lifestyle, in a recent sharing, experts "boldly" predicted the recovery of the land segment. However, recovery in confidence only comes from land in large cities or neighboring areas, while project land in remote provinces has not shown positive signs.
According to experts, from the end of 2023 onwards, the real estate market in general and land in particular may become easier. By mid or late 2024, the southern land market may begin to recover. The land price increase cycle will fall in the next 3-5 years. However, for this cycle to occur, there needs to be a convergence of many factors such as supply and demand, information, infrastructure, capital flows... to create land fevers.
The expansion of bank credit and gradually opening investor psychology are the driving forces helping the land market recover.
Recently, land transactions have shown signs of increasing in the suburbs of Ho Chi Minh City and some neighboring areas such as Binh Duong, Long An, Ba Ria - Vung Tau; while distant markets such as Binh Phuoc, Binh Thuan, and Lam Dong are still "quiet".
Many forecasts suggest that from mid-2024 onwards, when public investment capital is strongly disbursed and infrastructure is completed in some areas, it may open up opportunities for land prices to increase sharply in these areas. that location. Some small, localized land fever phenomena may appear in a short period of time. However, after that, prices do not tend to increase, and the market may experience a sideways period lasting several years.
Currently, investor psychology is still quite cautious when making the decision to "put money down". Demand remains low, which increases the likelihood of land fever occurring in the short term.
Sharing about the outlook for the real estate market in general, Ms. Trang Bui, General Director of Cushman & Wakefield affirmed that the real estate market will be more comfortable by the end of 2024.
Explaining this statement, Ms. Trang said that then bank interest rates will be "easier" and the secondary market will have price adjustments to match the buyer's payment level. From a policy perspective, state agencies are working very actively to remove legal problems for projects that have lasted for many years, including land use tax. This.
On the business side, project owners are regulating and launching preferential policies, loosening payment conditions to make them more favorable and attractive, which has a very positive impact on stimulating demand, thereby will bring positive impacts to the housing market.
According to Ms. Trang, currently deposit interest rates have decreased significantly but lending interest rates have not decreased, banks are still tightening credit for investors. Regarding home buyers, 2023 is a year of huge fluctuations, many people even lose their jobs, so getting a loan is not easy. Banks still have "room" to lend to this group of customers, but the interest rates are too high so they are not attractive to borrowers.
Dao Vu (Th)
