According to an article by Responsible Statecraft (RS), as Western leaders left the G7 summit in Evian, discussing a "strategic awakening to support Ukraine ," the Moscow night sky was illuminated by the lights of a burning oil refinery just 14km from the Kremlin.
The news site noted that Ukraine's unprecedented drone attack on Russian territory had received approval in European capitals.
“During the most tense moments of the Cold War, Western diplomacy was based on a healthy fear of the unknown. Today, that caution has been replaced by a belief that a conflict with Russia can be managed,” RS wrote.
Author Matthew Blackburn further notes that the prevailing view in Europe is that deep strikes into central Russia are a less costly way to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire, and that European countries can coordinate military action “safely” with Ukraine.
This approach would overlook the risks associated with the collapse of the global security structure.
Unlike the Cold War era, when superpowers adhered to established chains of command and "red lines," these historical constraints have lost their effectiveness today.
The article also points out that, due to a lack of capability to conduct large-scale ground offensive operations, Ukraine has shifted its strategy to border defense, while simultaneously increasing the cost to Russia through deep penetration into enemy territory.
These attacks expanded in scale and scope even after Donald Trump entered the White House for a second term, marking a shift in the U.S. policy toward resolving conflicts through negotiation.
The most dramatic event was Operation Spiderweb, in which Ukrainian drones attacked strategic Russian air bases, damaging dozens of strategic bombers, a component of Russia's nuclear deterrence triad.
The article points out that, so far, Russia has clearly not sought to carry out large-scale drone and missile attacks aimed at destroying critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
This restraint stems not from weak military capabilities, but from carefully calculated political logic: If Russia escalates its attacks on Ukraine's power grids and water supply systems, it could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and an irreversible deterioration in public image, fundamentally contradicting the Kremlin's claims of liberating "brotherly nations."
Furthermore, attacks on key civilian targets could alienate Western public opinion from the war.
Therefore, unlike Israel, which has shown no restraint in its fierce airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, Russia is acting with moderation to maintain its political standing, and this is a double-edged sword for Ukraine and Europe.
RS warns that if Russia realizes that Ukraine is using its restraint in Ukraine as a weapon to deliver a fatal blow to Russia, the Kremlin's approach will change, leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian retaliation.
Instead of targeting Ukraine's infrastructure, Russia could then seek to eliminate the asymmetry in deep strikes into Ukrainian territory and restore deterrence by targeting the true source of Ukraine's newfound capabilities: European logistics centers and production capacity.
Source: https://giaoducthoidai.vn/rs-gion-mat-nga-chau-au-dang-dua-voi-lua-post783098.html
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