In the update report of the real estate industry and the impact on the stock market released by the research department of SSI Securities Company (SSI Research), this unit assessed that the market in the first months of the year was almost to the lowest level in recent years when the demand decreased deeply, the transaction volume decreased by 50% over the same period.
However, according to SSI Research, there are currently signs that the real estate market has bottomed and there are signs of recovery when the interest rate level has cooled down earlier than expected.
Specifically, at the beginning of the year, SSI Research forecast that interest rates might peak in mid-2023 and then gradually decrease. However, up to now, the reality shows that interest rates have cooled down earlier than expected, starting from mid-March. Although not yet significantly reflected in lending rates, the reduction in interest rates still helps stabilize the heart. market in this regard.
The real estate market recovered.
SSI Research also assessed that, in the first 4 months of the year, many solutions to support the real estate market were discussed and issued. Although these measures may take time to have a clearer effect, they partly reflect the Government's strong determination to solve the bottleneck for the real estate industry.
"The real estate market has had more positive movements, mainly from investors and brokers. On the demand side, although the average home loan interest rate fell to around 13,5%/year in April from a peak of about 4%/year in January. This is still a high level and needs further reductions. more to stimulate demand more strongly', said SSI Research.
With the current home loan interest rate hovering around 13%, SSI Research thinks it may need to cut this rate further by 150 to 200 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market. and this will most likely happen in 2024. At that point, the liquidity situation will be better as the Government's measures to ease difficulties for the real estate market and corporate bond market go away. into practice.
In the context that interest rates fall earlier than expected and are supported more actively by the Government, SSI Research believes that the worst time may be over for the real estate industry. Although the real estate market is improving, certain obstacles may remain.
In which, lending interest rates still need to be reduced further to stimulate demand again. Support policies also need time to really affect the market, especially to remove bottlenecks in the project licensing process.
In addition, SSI Research believes that the risk of default is still possible for investors who cannot negotiate with bondholders to extend the payment term or balance cash flow to repay the debt.
Therefore, investors who are less affected by the bond issue, possess good land bank and have strong development and sales ability are the investors who are able to weather the "headwinds". forward and benefit from supportive policies.
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