ĐThe decline in land prices has begun to slow down
According to Labor, According to the latest data from Property Guru Vietnam, there have been many indicators showing that the decline in land prices has begun to slow down. Currently, the level of interest in land is about 48 percentage points, 5-6 points higher than the lowest point in the first quarter of 2023 (42-43 percentage points).
Notably, in the first quarter of 2024, land in the suburbs of Hanoi is vibrant again with interest equivalent to the second quarter of 2022, when the market has not "plunged", concentrated in the following districts: Dong Nai. Anh, Long Bien, Chuong My, Thach That, Hoai Duc. Meanwhile, land in northern provinces such as Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Hoa Binh, Hung Yen... is still quite quiet.
In the southern market, real estate also temporarily stopped its decline, moving sideways for quite a long time (from the first quarter of 2023), not improving but not decreasing further.
Regarding selling prices, while land prices in the North and Central regions have begun to increase slightly compared to 2023, land prices in the Southern provinces have seen a clear adjustment in selling prices.
According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - Director of Property Guru Vietnam, the land market is cyclical. Because if you look back at search trends over the past years, March and May will be the time when the demand for land increases a lot.
There have been many indicators showing that the decline in land prices has begun to slow down. Illustration photo from the internet
Also according to this expert, land prices in some areas have adjusted, but the market is facing problems related to capital and loan interest. Therefore, only markets related to infrastructure fluctuations recorded faster recovery. Other areas, especially land in small provinces, still face many difficulties.
According to Market Lifestyle, Mr. Vo Hong Thang - Director of Consulting Services & Project Development DKRA Group once commented on this segment, the attraction of land in the long term will be very difficult to reduce. This segment is always popular with investors thanks to many factors, typically the preference for houses attached to land and the need to accumulate safe assets as well as the ability to increase profits from land is still high.
This person emphasized that, based on research that extends the repeating cycle, the land fever may return in the period 2025-2026. The current time until the first half of 2024 can be seen as the beginning of the next cycle of recovery and growth of the real estate market.
Batdongsan.com.vn said that the type of real estate that is most interested in 2024 is suburban land. The survey shows that the price segment under 2 billion VND/unit attracts the largest amount of interest with an interest level of 42%. The price range of 2-4 billion VND ranked second with 2% of interest. The price range of 24-4 billion VND ranked third with 6%. The remaining two price ranges are 3-10 billion VND and over 6 billion VND, with interest levels of 10% and 15%, respectively.
"From the second half of 2024, the land segment will recover, and a strong rebound may return in the period 2025 - 2026", this person emphasized.
At present, although the land market is not really vibrant again, this is still the "favorite dish" most sought after by investors. Because this segment is easy to invest in and has high profit potential.
However, this segment will not be as hot as before. Transactions mainly only appear in certain areas and have not spread widely. It will not be until 2025 that the land market will enter a cycle of price increases.
Be careful of fake prices
According to Economy & Urbanism, according to market survey data from information channel batdongsan.com.vn, after a relatively long period of "hibernation" (from the end of 2022 to now), ending the first quarter of 2024, the land segment in Hanoi has truly been "unfrozen". In the context of bank deposit interest rates being maintained at a low level (around 4%/year), there is a trend of investors shifting cash flow to other channels with better profits (including real estate). is inevitable.
“From the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, the number of land transactions in Hanoi Capital has recorded a recovery and growth again. Through actual market surveys, we found that the land segment is most concentrated in the group buying for investment purposes. Accordingly, the number of searches for land products in residential areas increased by 110% and project land increased by 77% over the same period last year" - Deputy General Director of batdongsan.com.vn Nguyen Quoc Anh said.
In fact, the search level and number of land transactions in Hanoi's suburban areas have recovered significantly in both transactions and selling prices. But according to experts, "unfounded" price increases still appear locally in some areas. Meanwhile, the market is still in the process of recovery, so investors need to be very careful. If they try to "swing to the peak", "virtual fever" will form, causing the risk of losing cash flow safety. and potential risks for the entire market.
“With Hanoi actively consolidating and upgrading its infrastructure system to serve socio-economic development, it is inevitable that housing and land prices will increase. But at this stage, people, especially those involved in investing, should not use too much financial leverage, because at the present time, especially after the 2024 Land Law takes effect, there will be no more room for Investing in surfing, investors are forced to consider long-term, medium-long-term problems" - Vice President of Hanoi Real Estate Club Nguyen The Diep recommended.
Sharing the same opinion, according to real estate legal expert Nguyen Van Dinh, the Land Law 2024 promises to bring comprehensive changes to the real estate market, which will focus on maximizing land resources but will also create pose a big challenge for land users. The land market will be managed and operated in a transparent manner, businesses will have easier access to land resources, through decisions on land recovery and will not have to negotiate to collect each piece. land as before.
“The Land Law 2024 will help the land market operate in a transparent and healthy competitive manner. Through the auction mechanism, bidding will be a test for business resilience. Businesses that do not have enough potential will be forced to withdraw from the market; Enterprises that are strong enough can participate in the "game" fairly and effectively, and the State's land resources will be allocated appropriately, to harmonize the interests of the State, people, and businesses. Thus, in the long term, the land market will not have the opportunity to increase as hotly as in recent times," expert Nguyen Van Dinh analyzed.
Dao Vu (Th)
