The outlook for stocks remains positive.

With the government's negotiation efforts, investor and business confidence will surely be restored.

Global stock markets plunged in the first trading session of the week (April 7th) following the US decision to impose high tariffs and strong reactions from China. The Vietnamese market also experienced a sharp decline at the end of last week, but experts believe the main reason was sentiment.

Many markets "switched off".

According to CNBC, major indices all declined, including Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's S&P/ASX 200, and India's Nifty 50. Asia is particularly dependent on exports, a large portion of which go to the United States. Some markets, such as Japan, China, and Taiwan (China), even had to halt trading due to excessive short-selling pressure from investors.

European stock markets also plunged, with the German DAX, French CAC 40, and British FTSE 100 all falling. Futures contracts for the US S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq also declined.

According to the Associated Press, President Donald Trump declared on April 6th that he did not want global markets to fall but was also not worried about a massive sell-off, as these measures were like "medicine." The sharp sell-off occurred after China retaliated against President Donald Trump's tariff increases announced last week, a move that fueled fears the trade war could trigger a recession damaging all parties.

Domestic investors remain concerned about selling pressure in the market amid the ongoing wave of tariffs, which shows no signs of abating. Photo: QUYNH TRAM

Johanna Kyrklund, Chief Investment Officer at Schroders Group (UK), and George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, believe Asian markets are the hardest hit. They estimate that China and Vietnam will suffer losses of more than 0.5% of GDP, while the European Union (EU) and Japan face declines of around 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP.

Nevertheless, top economic officials under Donald Trump dismissed concerns about inflation and recession, and stated that tariffs would remain in place regardless of market conditions. Market observers predict that investors will face even greater volatility in the coming days and weeks as a short-term solution to the trade war seems unlikely.

Nathan Thooft, Chief Investment Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at Manulife Investment Management (Canada), believes that the US imposition of tariffs on goods from many countries could lead to retaliatory tariffs from affected countries. With a large number of countries involved, the negotiation process will be complex and protracted. Therefore, he predicts that instability and volatility in financial markets may continue for a considerable period.

Meanwhile, Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity strategy at Citi Financial Group, argues that current earnings and stock valuation forecasts do not yet fully reflect the potential impact of the trade war. He believes the market could still decline further despite the sharp drop.

Panic selling due to psychological factors.

In Vietnam, the market also fell sharply in the last two trading sessions of the week following news that the US plans to impose a 46% retaliatory tariff on Vietnamese goods. In just two trading sessions on April 3rd and 4th, the VN-Index lost a total of over 107 points, falling to near 1,210 points, and at one point dropping as low as 1,160 points during the session. Trading volume across all three exchanges surged to 84,000 billion VND, the highest in many years.

Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu, Head of the Finance and Banking Department at the Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking, believes investors have reason to worry, as the news of the US imposing tariffs of up to 46% is shocking and could impact the macroeconomic situation. However, the market's reaction is clearly excessive and heavily influenced by psychological factors. Not all industries are severely affected by the tariffs; rather, the ripple effect has led to a sell-off and sharp declines across most stock prices.

According to Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu, the sectors most likely to be directly impacted are processing and import/export – including seafood, textiles, and industrial real estate. Meanwhile, sectors such as finance, securities, banking, and public investment will only be indirectly affected. "Furthermore, it's necessary to carefully analyze the type of enterprise – foreign direct investment (FDI) or domestic, whether it's listed or not… The important thing is that Vietnam can still rely on negotiations from the Government ," said Dr. Vu.

The investment director of a securities company also stated that the main reason for the sell-off of stocks on April 3rd and 4th was the overreaction from domestic individual investors, especially under the impact of margin calls.

In just two trading sessions, stocks on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange fell by nearly 14%, while some stocks on the Hanoi exchange dropped by as much as 18%. Accounts with high margin borrowings were certainly forced to sell. Data shows that individual investors, both domestic and foreign, were the main net sellers, while institutional investors, especially the proprietary trading desks of securities companies, took advantage of the situation to buy. Specifically, the proprietary trading desks bought a net of approximately 2,100 billion VND, while foreign individual investors sold as much as 6,500 billion VND.

The long-term outlook remains positive.

At the regular government press conference held on the weekend of April 6th, Deputy Minister of Finance Do Thanh Trung stated that the new US tariff policy not only applies to Vietnam but also affects many other countries. This will certainly impact the global investment and business environment. However, immediately after the US announced a 46% tariff on exports from Vietnam, the Government promptly intervened to implement countermeasures. Nevertheless, according to Mr. Trung, the investor reaction was "overreacted," especially in the stock market over the past few days. In just two days, the HoSE index lost more than 100 points. The Deputy Minister affirmed that with the Government's negotiation efforts, investor and business confidence will certainly be restored.

Mr. Nguyen Duy Hung, Chairman of the Board of Directors of SSI Securities Corporation, also shares a similar view. He believes that from the beginning of 2025 until now, despite continuous net selling by foreign investors, the VN-Index has still surpassed the 1,300-point mark thanks to strong buying power from domestic investors. After the news of high US tariffs, the VN-Index corrected sharply downwards to the 1,200-point mark, but liquidity increased significantly – this shows that confidence in the inherent potential remains very high.

According to Mr. Nguyen Duy Hung, Vietnam has a large consumer market, abundant domestic capital, and an increasingly professional investment mindset. This is the opportune time for domestic businesses to reposition their production strategies and compete in their own backyard – a sustainable growth engine for the economy.

According to Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan, General Director of Dong A Bank Securities Company (DAS), the new US tax policy could create a global trade war with no clear end in sight. When the tariffs are implemented, things could change negatively: commodity prices increase, trade stagnates, demand decreases, impacting global growth. Therefore, a sharp decline in the stock market is understandable. In particular, pessimism and panic have emerged as many investors simultaneously reduce their stock holdings and cut margin. The simultaneous margin calls by securities companies have led to cross-liquidation.

Domestic cash flow must be strong enough.

According to Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan, the selling activity by foreign investors indicates a shift in their capital flows. This necessitates a strong and sustained flow of domestic investors' capital to support the market. He advises investors to monitor key factors in the coming period, including: global stock market trends, the pace of policy negotiations, actions by foreign investors, the risk of cross-margin calls, and exchange rate fluctuations. These factors will determine whether the VN-Index has bottomed out, and investors need to manage their accounts flexibly to control risks.

Macroeconomic factors still support growth.

According to DSC Securities Company, the VN-Index is likely to continue experiencing strong fluctuations this week, and the market bottom may form in the range of 1,160 - 1,180 points. In this context, long-term investors should take advantage of deep corrections or panic buying to gradually disburse funds, prioritizing leading stocks in the banking and securities sectors.

Regarding the US's retaliatory tariffs, DSC experts assess this as a short-term shock to Vietnam's exports, but it does not alter the positive outlook for the economy. Current macroeconomic factors still support growth. Even in the worst-case scenario, Vietnam's GDP is projected to remain high compared to regional and global averages.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/trien-vong-chung-khoan-van-tich-cuc-196250407210414488.htm