Exports of processed coffee increased by 46%.

Overall, in the first 10 months of 2023, coffee exports reached over $692 million, an increase of 28% compared to the same period in 2022.

According to the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , in October and the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam's exports of Robusta and Arabica coffee decreased compared to the same period in 2022, but exports of processed coffee increased sharply.

Exports of processed coffee have increased sharply.

In October 2023, Robusta coffee exports reached approximately 27.2 thousand tons, valued at US$66.86 million, a decrease of 61.6% in volume and 54.4% in value compared to October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, Robusta coffee exports totaled 1.13 million tons, valued at US$2.45 billion, a decrease of 12.1% in volume and 4.3% in value compared to the same period last year.

Vietnam's main export markets for Robusta coffee include Germany, Italy, the United States, Japan, and Russia. Notably, while exports of Robusta coffee to most traditional markets have decreased, exports to Mexico, the Netherlands, and Indonesia have increased sharply.

Arabica coffee exports in October 2023 reached 900 tons, valued at US$2.96 million, a decrease of 64.6% in volume and 73.5% in value compared to October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, Arabica coffee exports totaled 35,500 tons, valued at US$139.75 million, a decrease of 28.6% in volume and 36.3% in value compared to the same period last year. Vietnam primarily exports Arabica coffee to markets such as Belgium, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and Thailand.

Currently, Vietnam's largest coffee import market is the EU, followed by the US and Japan. Although coffee exports to China do not yet account for a high proportion, many Vietnamese businesses are interested in this market because China's coffee import rate is increasing by an average of over 25% per year. Young people in China are increasingly preferring coffee over tea. However, this is also a highly competitive market, requiring businesses to invest in diversifying specialty coffee and processed coffee products and meeting stringent quality standards.

According to experts, major markets such as the EU and the US are currently shifting their consumption needs from importing green coffee beans to processed coffee. Therefore, Vietnam must also prioritize investing in advanced processing facilities to increase the value of coffee products and move towards sustainable development.

Forecasts indicate that coffee prices for the 2023-2024 crop year will remain high. If major global economies continue to lower interest rates by June 2024, coffee exports will continue to benefit. This is because roasters worldwide will be stockpiling coffee at this time, making it unlikely for prices to fall.

On the derivatives market, according to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), after soaring in yesterday's session (December 3rd), the prices of two coffee commodities fell by 2.69% for Arabica and 1.01% for Robusta at the close of trading on December 4th. The weakening Real stimulated selling demand from farmers while inventories temporarily halted their decline.

Coffee prices on the derivatives market edged lower after yesterday's sharp rise.

The weakening Brazilian Real, coupled with a 0.49% rebound in the Dollar Index yesterday, led to a 1.29% increase in the USD/BRL exchange rate. This widening exchange rate differential encouraged Brazilian farmers to sell their coffee, as it yielded them more foreign currency.

In addition, certified Arabica coffee stocks on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE-US) closed at 224,066 bags on December 1st, remaining unchanged after a drop of nearly 70,000 bags earlier. This temporarily stabilized market sentiment and prevented prices from losing their upward momentum.

On the domestic market, as of this morning (December 5th), the price of bulk green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces fluctuated between 58,700 and 59,700 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to the previous day.

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