This development has somewhat eased concerns about a "nightmare" of value collapse that has been engulfing the market, after the cryptocurrency fell from its historical peak of $126,000 set in October.
Traders' attention is now focused on the shift in expectations for interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the FedWatch tool on the CME trading platform, the odds of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the December meeting have surged to 70% as of November 23rd, a sharp increase from just 39% the day before.
This shift in sentiment stems from the latest statement by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams. Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Williams stated that there is still room to adjust short-term interest rates to a more neutral level. Williams emphasized the need to sustainably bring inflation to the long-term target of 2%, but also to avoid creating unnecessary risks to the job market.
This stance reassured the market, which had previously worried that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged due to stronger-than-expected September jobs data and internal divisions revealed in the minutes of the previous meeting.
Despite the complex monetary policy landscape and a nearly 40% drop in just over a month, many experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects.
Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO of financial services firm Blueprint Finance, explains that the drop from its peak above $126,000 in October to below $90,000 reflects the convergence of a series of risk factors: news about tariffs, a stronger US dollar, and a wave of forced liquidations in an overstretched market.
However, he insisted that the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged. According to him, this correction helps remove excess leverage and creates momentum for a healthier growth spurt. He predicted that Bitcoin will stabilize and rebound to the $95,000-$110,000 range by the end of the year. If macroeconomic conditions ease and money flows back in, a strong price surge in December is entirely possible.
From a more cautious perspective, Andreas Brekken, founder of the trading platform SideShift.ai, argues that the bear market actually began in December 2024, but was masked by the historical rise of the USD. Given the current sell-off, he predicts the next bull market will begin in the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, some observers are pinning their hopes on the Fed ending its quantitative easing program on December 1st. This program was designed to withdraw liquidity from the financial system.
Robert Le, head of research at Kiln, suggests that ending quantitative easing on December 1st could help reactivate bitcoin's growth momentum toward 2026. He believes the peak reached between August and October may only be the midpoint of the cycle. The market may be mispricing both bitcoin's growth potential and downside risks during this period.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/bitcoin-dao-chieu-sau-cu-lao-doc-dot-ngot-20251124131211479.htm
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