The war in Ukraine makes Romania nervous

The Romanian army last week rushed to build a series of bomb shelters near the border with Ukraine, after discovering many fragments of suspected unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the territory. The tunnels are built of assembled concrete, covered with sandbags on the outside to protect people from UAVs and missiles.

Russia recently increased the use of UAVs and cruise missiles to attack Ukraine's food warehouses and port infrastructure, after withdrawing from the Black Sea grain agreement. To prevent Ukraine from exporting grain via river to neighboring countries, Russian UAVs continuously fly along the Danube River between Ukraine's Odessa province and Romanian territory to attack targets. This raised concerns in Romania, a NATO member country, as UAV debris continued to fall.

Romania built a bomb shelter near the border with Ukraine

Iulian, a Romanian man herding sheep on the banks of the Danube River, said he saw UAVs flying along the river to attack Ukrainian territory, but were stopped by Kiev's air defense forces. “I saw them being shot down right there, and then smoke and fire rose,” he said.

The Danube, a river several hundred meters wide that flows along the Ukraine-Romania border before emptying into the Black Sea, is the distance that prevents a raid on Ukraine from becoming an attack on the entire NATO alliance. If the Russian UAV flies off target and crashes into Romanian territory, a large-scale conflict could erupt, because NATO is responsible for protecting allies under the bloc's common defense clause.

Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar said on September 6 that the object that fell on the country's territory near Ukraine could be Russian UAV debris. Debris fell near Plauru, a Romanian village on the other side of the Danube River, opposite the Ukrainian port of Izmail.

Mr. Tilvar said the debris would be analyzed to confirm its origin, adding that the area where the debris was discovered was not under evacuation order because there were no signs that it could pose a threat.

On September 13, the Romanian Ministry of Defense continued to announce the discovery of suspected UAV debris scattered in Nufaru and Victoria districts in the eastern city of Tulcea, about 9 km from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said that this was the latest sign that Moscow threatened "the security of neighboring countries, including NATO members".

On the upper Danube, increased traffic on a string of river ports, including Izmail, has turned this quiet area into a place of strategic importance.

Russia has stepped up raids in the area in an effort to prevent Ukraine from using the Danube River as an alternative grain transport route when the Black Sea is blockaded. Moscow in July withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, an agreement that allowed grain from Ukraine to be transported by sea, the main export route to world markets.

Moscow also revoked all relevant maritime safety guarantees, warning that all ships heading to Ukrainian ports bordering the Black Sea could be considered means of transporting military goods. A Russian warship last month fired warning shots at a commercial ship approaching a port in the Black Sea.

At the Romanian port of Constanta, shipping companies move grain from Ukraine via the Danube and canals, as well as by trucks and trains, before loading the cargo onto ships, bound for the Bosphorus and the Mediterranean. .

But the recent explosion of a suspected Russian mine drifting into waters near Constanta shows the risks facing areas near war zones.

“We are very worried. Russia continues to create new risks, risks leading to escalation and miscalculation,” Mr. Tilvar said.

Romania has deployed 11 warships, 2 helicopters, 6 maritime surveillance UVA and 3 explosive diving teams to deal with the threat from mines and Russian UAVs. NATO reconnaissance aircraft also continuously patrol the Romanian border area.

“We are prepared for any unexpected situation that may arise,” Mr. Tilvar said, adding that “no country bordering Ukraine can rule out the possibility of accidental fire.”

As one of the few countries to consistently meet NATO's annual defense budget target of 2% of GDP, Romania this year increased its defense budget to 7,5 billion USD, accounting for about 2,5%. GDP, in the context of the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

This country is preparing to open an F-16 pilot training center for Ukraine, and buy more US-made aircraft, tanks, howitzers and UAVs to equip Ukrainian forces.

Previously, this defense budget was excessive for Romania. But given the ongoing conflict near the border, this amount of money is reasonable, according to Sandu-Valentin Mateiu, a retired Romanian intelligence officer. “We are on the front line,” he said.

Mateiu added that although Romania has no land border with Russia, “our exclusive economic zone is adjacent to the Crimean peninsula”, which Russia annexed in 2014 and used as a springboard for the war in Ukraine. Many Russian missiles and UAVs are deployed from this peninsula.

Russia seems to be trying to probe the gray area in international maritime agreements by continuously launching air strikes to destroy Ukraine's grain export routes, according to Mateiu. However, he believes Russia will avoid "war with NATO".

Mateiu also noted that while Ukraine may want NATO to intervene more in the conflict, Romania, which has suffered a lot of suspected UAV debris, is cautious. “As the Russians do not pose a real threat to life or property on our territory, Bucharest will not seek to escalate tensions, even diplomatically,” he said.

However, Mr. Mateiu affirmed that "when we see a real threat, Romania will act quickly to respond decisively."

Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who took office in May, pledged unconditional support for Ukraine and will double the amount of Ukrainian grain transiting in Romania, mainly at the Constanta river port. However, Romania's crop output this year is likely to exceed last year's and the Constanta port is also used to export grain to partners such as Hungary and Serbia, raising concerns about the feasibility of the commitment. that Prime Minister Ciolacu launched.

Viorel Panait, owner of Comvex, the largest grain warehouse operator in Constanta, said that the entire river port logistics network must be renewed.

“In July, the city handled nearly 7% of the total grain shipped from Ukraine. That requires us to be creative,” he said.

Panait has spent more than $4 billion to increase the company's capacity and worked with the government on digital customs procedures to reduce wait times from 36 hours to 30 minutes.

Before next year's election, Prime Minister Ciolacu's government also needs to take into account the grievances of Romanian farmers, who have difficulty competing with cheap Ukrainian grain, as well as those tired of the war. war, according to Costin Ciobanu, a researcher at the University of London.

“Farmers are an important constituency for Mr. Ciolacu,” Mr. Ciobanu said.

Romania is one of a group of countries in the European Union (EU) that imposes a ban on grain imports from Ukraine, despite agreeing to create conditions for Ukrainian grain to be transferred through its territory.

Ahead of local, parliamentary, and presidential elections in 2024, Romania's nationalist AUR party has scored some victories promoting an anti-Ukrainian message, according to Ciobanu.

While the majority of Romanians are skeptical of the scenario of Russia attacking the country, a recent poll showed that half of respondents attributed rising food and fuel prices to the Ukraine conflict.

On Costinesti beach, about 30 kilometers south of Constanta, fisherman and restaurant owner Matei Datcu says he is less afraid of mines washing ashore than the reality of the worsening economy.

“You can see the big mine and avoid it. But next year, taxes will increase. Its pressure will be felt more clearly than any mine drifting ashore,” he said.

Thanh Tam (Follow FT)