New week's stocks: 330,000 billion VND 'pumped' out, are the two biggest pressures reversing?

The stock market is gradually easing pressure as the exchange rate situation and net selling by foreign investors show signs of reversal. Additionally, over 330 trillion VND in credit will be injected into the economy in the last month of the year.

The stock market is gradually becoming more optimistic towards the end of the year - Photo: QUANG DINH

The VN-Index closed the 49th trading week of the year at 1,270 points, up nearly 20 points from the previous week, along with a sharp increase in average trading volume.

* Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of Analysis Department at FIDT:

Credit growth is strong at the end of the year, but two signs of a potential reversal have emerged.

- The two biggest short-term pressures on the stock market, exchange rates and net selling by foreign investors, are showing more optimistic signs of reversal.

This could be the time when new foreign capital flows return to seek new opportunities, especially with the positive outlook that the Vietnamese stock market will be upgraded to FTSE status in the upcoming March 2025 period.

Once the risks passed, market confidence began to improve rapidly, and there were signs that large amounts of money were returning to the market.

In addition, credit showed positive signs in the latter part of 2024. As of December 7th, credit growth had reached 12.5%, a very strong increase in the last two months of the year. Thus, credit increased by more than 450,000 billion VND in just over a month.

According to the planned 15% credit growth target, more than 330 trillion VND will be injected into the economy in the last month of the year. It is estimated that nearly 800 trillion VND in credit is expected to be disbursed in the last two months of the year.

For the base scenario, we believe that the recent deep market correction has reflected most of the "assumed risks" in the medium term.

* Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis for Individual Clients at Yuanta Securities Vietnam:

The story of upgrading the stock market will attract capital.

- The biggest risk recently has been the exchange rate. However, this pressure has eased somewhat as the upward momentum of the USD has weakened along with the weakening of US government bond yields.

The State Bank of Vietnam has also resumed intervention in the foreign exchange market with several recent issuances of treasury bills.

The liquidity risks in the stock market have also eased somewhat this past week, with investors not remaining on the sidelines and showing less pessimism.

Currently, speculative foreign capital has almost completely withdrawn, leaving only strategic shareholders. There is not much room left to sell.

It is highly likely that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates in December, further reinforcing expectations of a return to net buying by foreign investors in the Vietnamese market.

Regarding the stock market upgrade, we missed the opportunity last October. However, in the review next March, we have a high chance of being considered for an upgrade by FTSE. This is a positive topic that attracts both domestic and foreign investment.

* Mr. Barry Weisblatt - Director of Securities Analysis at VNDirect:

The valuation of the Vietnamese stock market is attractive.

- The valuation of the Vietnamese stock market is currently attractive. Accordingly, the trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of the VN-Index is currently discounted by more than 10.3% compared to the 5-year average. The market has not properly assessed the prospect of Q4 earnings growth exceeding 20% ​​as forecast by our company.

In addition, the market has largely reflected the risks associated with President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, which has pushed the DXY index to 107.

The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts at its upcoming December meeting could cool down the DXY index, thereby reducing pressure on the VND exchange rate and allowing the State Bank of Vietnam to focus more on supporting system liquidity and credit growth.

Although economic growth and the earnings picture of listed companies have improved significantly, it can be seen that market valuations have not yet fully reflected this, mainly due to the impact of very large net selling by foreign investors since the beginning of the year, increased exchange rate pressure, and higher liquidity stress in the final months of this year.

Given the current valuations and macroeconomic context, we believe this is an opportune time for long-term investors to proactively allocate capital and accumulate shares to build a portfolio for 2025.

However, since the market has not yet established a clear upward trend, excessive use of financial leverage can be counterproductive and increase risk.

Investors are advised to adopt a prudent capital allocation strategy.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-330-000-ti-dong-bom-ra-hai-ap-luc-lon-nhat-dang-dao-chieu-20241209093540368.htm