Recently, the Trade Remedies Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) announced that it had received information that the European Commission (EC) had received a complete and valid application requesting an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled non-alloy or alloy steel coils imported from Vietnam. In the event of initiating an investigation, the EC will send relevant parties documents including the Application, the Decision to Initiate Investigation, and the Investigation Questionnaire.

The Trade Remedies Department recommends that businesses exporting products subject to investigation monitor the case and develop appropriate response plans.

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The steel industry faces many concerns. Photo: Hoang Ha

If this move materializes, it would be like delivering a "double shock" to Vietnam's hot-rolled steel industry: losing both export market share and the domestic market to imports.

According to data from Hoa Phat Group, hot-rolled steel coil production in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 10% compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to difficulties in consumption in both domestic and export markets.

The influx of low-priced imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) into the Vietnamese market in the first half of 2024 increased sharply (6 million tons, 1.5 times higher than the same period in 2023 and exceeding the overall market growth), putting significant pressure on Hoa Phat 's domestic consumption of hot-rolled coil. Simultaneously, although HRC prices in the Vietnamese market briefly increased in February 2024, they continuously declined from March to the end of the second quarter of 2024.

The export market also faces numerous challenges stemming from the oversupply of hot-rolled steel coils as well as the intensification of trade protection measures in importing countries.

SSI Securities Company, in its latest assessment report on Hoa Phat Group, also mentioned this story. In addition, SSI stated that the European Union has decided to extend protectionist measures on imported steel until the end of June 2026, and simultaneously apply a 15% quota of the "other countries" category, equivalent to approximately 142,000 tons per quarter, to Vietnam.

"This policy could reduce the HRC quota from Vietnam to Europe by about 50% compared to 2023. The tariff applied to steel outside the quota is 25%," SSI forecasts.

Meanwhile, according to SSI, the European market accounted for approximately 10% and 37% of Hoa Phat's total export revenue in 2022 and 2023, respectively, contributing 2.1% and 10.7% of Hoa Phat's total revenue.

Speaking to reporters, Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao, Head of the Business Environment and Competitiveness Department (Central Institute for Economic Management Research), stated that countries still apply safeguard measures when domestic production is severely damaged by imports. Safeguard measures are usually short-term solutions. To determine whether hot-rolled steel imported from China is being dumped, an investigation into the goods by the Trade Remedies Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade is necessary. This is a measure that can be implemented to protect domestic production.

"For the time being, applying safeguard measures is necessary when steel production is below design capacity and the market is declining. In the steel sector, when businesses have market share and are experiencing a rapid decline as they are now, measures are needed to protect domestic businesses, which is also protecting domestic production," Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao emphasized.

Ms. Nguyen Thi Minh Thao stated: In the long term, given that import tariffs are reduced to zero as committed in free trade agreements, we can introduce non-tariff barriers based on technical standards and regulations to ensure that steel imported into Vietnam meets those technical standards. These non-tariff barriers are essentially technical barriers, while currently, imports into Vietnam are very smooth.

"Meanwhile, domestic steel exports will soon be affected by the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), so export volumes will certainly decrease significantly from 2026 onwards due to failure to meet carbon criteria," Ms. Thao further noted.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is investigating anti-dumping measures against hot-rolled steel from China and India . The Ministry of Industry and Trade has decided to conduct an investigation into the application of anti-dumping measures against certain hot-rolled steel products originating from India and China.