Arabica coffee prices fall.

Báo Công thương•30/12/2024

At the close of last week's trading, the prices of both coffee commodities weakened, with Arabica coffee falling by 0.72% and Robusta coffee by 0.98%.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), selling pressure dominated the global raw materials market last week (December 23-29), causing the MXV-Index to fall slightly by 0.16% to 2,189 points. Notably, in the industrial raw materials market, cocoa prices plummeted sharply, by more than 15% to their lowest level in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile, in the metals market, prices of many commodities increased positively during the week that included the Christmas holiday.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay 30/12: Giá cà phê Arabica giảm

MXV-Index

Arabica and Robusta coffee prices fall.

At the close of trading last week, prices for both coffee commodities weakened, with Arabica coffee falling 0.72% and Robusta coffee down 0.98%. During the week, investors began liquidating contracts to lock in profits ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday. Additionally, news regarding Brazil's export performance and estimates of a larger-than-expected global coffee trade surplus put downward pressure on prices.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE), the South American country exported 4.66 million bags of coffee (60kg each) in November, a 5.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023. For the first 11 months of 2024, Brazil achieved a record export volume of nearly 46.4 million bags, a 3.78% increase from the peak recorded in 2020, and a 32.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

In addition, in its supply and demand estimates, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that the global coffee market for the 2024-2025 crop year will have a surplus of 6.78 million 60kg bags, a 21.07% increase compared to the June forecast and the largest surplus in the past four years. The USDA also estimates that global coffee trade will have a surplus of 8.26 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year, 2.2 times higher than the previous forecast but 1.29 million bags lower than the 2023-2024 crop year. Of this, exports are projected at 144.9 million bags and imports at 136.6 million bags.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions this morning (December 30th) were recorded at 120,300 - 121,000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have doubled.

In addition, red dominated the price charts for industrial raw materials, with cocoa prices drawing particular attention as they plummeted by 15.3%.

In just one week, cocoa prices lost approximately $2,400 per ton from last week's record high, falling to just over $10,100 per ton, ending a six-week winning streak. Selling pressure was concentrated in the last two trading sessions of the week as investors increased profit-taking after the Christmas holidays. However, fundamental market factors still indicate concerns about the ability to meet cocoa supply in the early months of 2025.

Industrial raw material price list

In Ivory Coast, cocoa farmers have expressed concerns about supply in the early months of 2025 due to the impact of strong dry monsoon winds in key producing regions. Strong Harmattan winds and low rainfall are causing cocoa leaves to dry out, weakening the trees and affecting yields. The most severely affected areas include Central West Daloa, central Yamoussoukro, and central Bongouanou, with very little or almost no rainfall.

According to estimates from cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast, cocoa shipments from October 1st to December 22nd reached 972,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. However, this increase is mainly due to a sharp decline in cocoa production and exports during the previous 2023-2024 crop year. Compared to previous normal seasons, the current cocoa shipment volume remains low.

The agricultural market is covered in green.

According to MXV, contrary to the overall market trend, buying pressure prevailed in the agricultural commodities market last week. Notably, after two consecutive weeks of weakness, soybean prices recorded a slight increase of over 0.5%. Prices were supported by concerns about supply in South America and positive export prospects for US soybeans.

Agricultural product price list

In South America, dry weather is expected to persist in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and southwestern Paraguay this week. In Argentina, in particular, the market is concerned about a prolonged drought and the likelihood of no rain returning in January. If this happens, soybean yields in Argentina will be affected due to a lack of moisture necessary for growth. This factor provided support to prices yesterday.

In addition, market demand remains generally positive. In its Export Inspections report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that the country shipped 1.75 million tons of soybeans in the week ending December 19th, up from 1.69 million tons the previous week and 1.12 million tons in the same period last year. Furthermore, in its Daily Export Sales report on December 13th, the USDA also indicated that the U.S. sold 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2024-2025 crop year to China. This suggests that U.S. export activity improved last week, boosting buying interest in the market.

Following a similar trend, soybean meal prices extended their recovery for the second consecutive session, rising more than 2% over the past week. Besides concerns about weather conditions in Argentina, the fire at the Bunge soybean processing plant in Cairo, Illinois (USA) also contributed to price support. Although the fire is under control, the timing of the plant's reopening remains uncertain, raising concerns about short-term supply. Soybean oil prices showed little change over the past week.

On the domestic market, as of December 26th, the quoted prices for South American soybean meal delivered to Vietnamese ports remained relatively stable. At Vung Tau port, the quoted price for February 2025 delivery was 10,300 VND/kg, while the March 2025 delivery price also fluctuated around 10,300 VND/kg. At Cai Lan port, the quoted price was approximately 150 VND/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods