Bank USD exchange rates reach highest level in 5 months.

The official exchange rate this afternoon increased by 60-70 compared to the beginning of the morning, reaching close to 24,000 VND, following the State Bank of Vietnam's move to raise the selling price of USD.

On the afternoon of August 14th, at Vietcombank , the buying and selling price of USD increased by 60 dong compared to the morning, reaching 23,620 – 23,990 dong. Compared to the end of last week, the USD price at this bank has increased by 80 dong.

BIDV 's exchange rate also increased by 60 dong this afternoon to 23,665 – 23,965 dong. Meanwhile, at another state-owned bank, VietinBank, the USD price even surpassed the 24,000 dong mark, with a buying rate of 23,580 dong and a selling rate of 24,040 dong per dollar.

In the private sector, Eximbank also raised its buying and selling rates by 60 dong compared to the morning, trading at 23,590 – 23,970 dong. Sacombank's rate rose to 23,615 – 23,968 dong. This is the highest rate since March of this year.

The US dollar exchange rate at commercial banks rose sharply after the State Bank of Vietnam increased the selling price of the US dollar at the Exchange this morning. Specifically, the central bank increased the selling price of the US dollar by 12 dong to 24,990 dong, while keeping the buying price unchanged at 23,400 dong.

The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank of Vietnam on August 14th was 23,848 VND per USD. With a 5% margin, the US dollar is allowed to trade at commercial banks within the range of 22,655 - 25,040 VND.

In the free market, the USD is trading at 23,750 – 23,830 VND, a slight decrease in the buying rate and an increase of 15 VND in the selling rate compared to yesterday.

Shinhan Bank's report on the Vietnam Economic and Foreign Exchange Market Outlook for the second half of 2023 also noted that the Vietnamese Dong is at risk of depreciating in the short term due to international pressure.

Vietnam's trade-to-GDP ratio is over 100%, and the Vietnamese dong has historically tended to move in tandem with the Chinese yuan, given China's largest trading partner. However, China's manufacturing sector has lost momentum after a brief recovery earlier this year, leading to a recent weakening of the yuan. According to Shinhan Bank, this puts a short-term strain on the dong.

Despite its sensitivity to external factors, Shinhan Bank predicts that the exchange rate will remain well-controlled as it will be less sensitive to foreign investment and stock market indices.

Shinhan Bank experts predict that the exchange rate will rise in the third quarter and then reverse its downward trend in the fourth quarter, driven by expectations that China will adjust its economic policies and the global manufacturing sector will emerge from its bottom.

The analysis team at KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) also believes that the exchange rate remains stable thanks to abundant foreign currency supply and proactive management policies.

KBSV forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate will increase by approximately 2% throughout 2023. According to the securities firm, this slight depreciation will not require the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates or sell off foreign exchange reserves.

Quynh Trang

Source link