The price increased by 15 million VND/ounce last week.
After a sharp drop to 136 million VND/ounce on June 11th, the price of SJC gold bars has regained its upward momentum in recent days, with a total increase of over 15 million VND/ounce. On June 18th, gold trading companies such as SJC, Doji , Bao Tin Minh Chau, etc., bought gold at 148.8 million VND and sold it at 151.3 million VND. Similarly, the price of gold rings has also increased compared to the previous week. SJC bought gold at 148.7 million VND and sold it at 151.2 million VND. Bao Tin Minh Chau bought gold at 148.3 million VND and sold it at 151.3 million VND. Phu Quy had a buying price of 148.5 million VND and a selling price of 151.3 million VND...
Contrary to the upward trend of domestic gold prices, the price of the precious metal on the world market fluctuated sharply when the US announced it would maintain its USD interest rate policy at 3.5 - 3.75% per year. The price of gold on the world market at one point fell to $4,220 per ounce before quickly rising to $4,300 and hovering around this level on June 18th.
Gold prices have increased by more than 15 million VND per tael in the past 7 days.
Photo: Dao Ngoc Thach
Not only gold, but silver prices also reversed course and quickly rose again on June 18th to $68.51/ounce after falling to $66.8. However, domestic silver prices decreased by 1.1 million VND/kg. Sacombank - SBJ Company bought at 69.2 million VND and sold at 71.36 million VND; Phu Quy Company bought at approximately 69.07 million VND and sold at 72.2 million VND… Thus, silver prices decreased by 1.8% in the day, but over the past week recorded an increase of 6.5%, or about 4 million VND/kg.
The current gold price trends and global situation are raising questions about the extent of the precious metal's potential for recovery.
Gold expert Duong Anh Vu analyzed: In just the past few days, the precious metal has recovered more than $200/ounce, reaching $4,320/ounce. The reason is that the Middle East conflict has cooled down after the US announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran. However, the conflict in Eastern Europe remains a major question mark as the G7 summit ended without any concrete solutions to increase pressure on Russia. With this trend, conflict will continue to be a driving force for gold prices in the short term. If the fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues, gold prices could hold above $4,200/ounce. In addition, investor attention is also focused on the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Recently, there have been opinions suggesting that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates if inflation in the US continues to escalate. These comments become more plausible if the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged. "Based on fundamental factors, gold prices may maintain an upward trend in the near future. The key support level for gold is around $4,230 per ounce. If this support level holds, gold prices could rise to $4,530 per ounce, an increase of $200 per ounce compared to the current price, equivalent to more than 6.3 million VND per tael," Mr. Vu predicted.
Domestic prices are unpredictable.
The global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore) recently released its Q3 2026 economic forecast report, which stated that a short-term consolidation phase around $4,500 per ounce is crucial and necessary. This cautious short-term view on gold appears quite accurate, as the price is currently consolidating around $4,500 per ounce. This is due to rising US Treasury yields, reflecting growing concerns about inflation amidst higher crude oil prices. In this consolidation phase, trading and speculation have cooled down, as evidenced by a decrease in gold holdings on the COMEX exchange and a decline in trading volume of the benchmark gold ETF (GLD).
Furthermore, several short-term headwinds exist for gold prices, including gold selling by central banks such as those in Russia and Türkiye, as well as India's efforts to reduce gold purchases to mitigate the weakening pressure of the INR. Therefore, the current consolidation phase around $4,500/ounce is considered crucial and necessary, helping gold establish a stable foundation before long-term support factors as a safe-haven asset return in the coming months. Despite maintaining a cautious short-term view, UOB continues to have a positive outlook on gold's long-term prospects. Updated forecasts for gold prices are as follows: $4,600/ounce in Q3 2026, $4,800/ounce in Q4 2026, $5,000/ounce in Q1 2027, and $5,200/ounce in Q2 2027.
Before commenting on whether the upward trend in gold prices will continue in the near future, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Association - reviewed the factors that caused gold prices to fall in the second week of June. These included concerns about rising inflation as geopolitical tensions in Iran led to higher oil prices. High inflation led to the Fed raising interest rates. After the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement and the Strait of Hormuz was expected to reopen on June 19th, oil prices fell rapidly to around $76 per barrel. This information quickly supported a rebound in gold prices as inflation concerns eased. "The factor supporting the rise in gold prices is falling interest rates. Currently, the Fed has not cut interest rates, but the drop in oil prices creates room for inflation to fall, at which point interest rates will have the conditions to decrease. In addition, a recently published survey by the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. This indicates that the demand for gold has not decreased. Furthermore, geopolitical conflicts in some countries around the world will be a factor supporting the rise in gold prices," Mr. Khanh analyzed and predicted: While this increase may not reach the record of $5,600/ounce in January, a level of $5,000/ounce is expected as USD interest rates fall.
Furthermore, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh believes that while domestic gold prices fluctuate in line with global prices, they are also subject to more unpredictable factors, particularly supply and demand. The market is currently awaiting the State Bank of Vietnam's allocation of import quotas for raw materials used in gold production. A second unpredictable factor is the price difference between domestic and international markets. Last month, domestic gold prices were over 20 million VND/ounce higher than international prices, recently dropping to around 7-8 million VND/ounce, and now rising again to 13 million VND/ounce. This creates a risk for gold buyers, as domestic prices may not follow global trends but instead fluctuate according to domestic supply and demand.
The US dollar is rising, while interest rates on the Vietnamese dong are falling.
The central exchange rate listed by the State Bank of Vietnam has been continuously increasing for the past 5 weeks. On June 18th, the central exchange rate was 25,173 VND/USD (down 2 VND). Compared to the beginning of the year, the central exchange rate increased by 52 VND/USD, equivalent to 0.2%. Commercial banks increased their USD buying rates to the maximum limit. Vietcombank bought at 26,081 - 26,111 VND and sold at 26,431 VND. ACB bought at 26,110 - 26,140 VND and sold at 26,431 VND. VietinBank bought at 26,125 VND and sold at 26,431 VND… Meanwhile, other foreign currencies in banks decreased sharply. At Vietcombank, the EUR price decreased by 260 VND, buying at 29,531 - 29,830 VND and selling at 31,088 VND; The British pound fell by 317 dong, with buying prices at 34,122 - 34,467 dong and selling prices at 35,571 dong; the Australian dollar fell by 110 dong, with buying prices at 18,011 - 18,193 dong and selling prices at 18,776 dong… On the world market, the USD strengthened sharply, with the USD-Index increasing by 0.12 points to 100.52 points.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/gia-vang-se-tang-den-dau-185260618173949377.htm
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