What direction will the US dollar take?

Việt Nam•23/03/2025

Today's USD exchange rate (March 24): Early morning on March 24, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at: 24,813 VND.

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the fluctuations of the US dollar against six major currencies, stands at 104.15.

Predicting the trend of the USD this week.

The outcome of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting did not significantly boost the value of the US dollar. Essentially, it wasn't a noteworthy event because the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, as expected.

Chart showing the fluctuations of the DXY Index over the past week. Image: Marketwatch

The US dollar had been under considerable pressure since the beginning of the year due to concerns about the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on US economic growth. The greenback recovered this week after the Fed indicated it would not rush to cut interest rates. Fed policymakers have signaled two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, the same average forecast as three months ago.

Although inflation forecasts have been revised upward, this has failed to trigger a sharp rise in Treasury yields and the dollar. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's measure of inflation, are expected to be at 2.7% this year. Last December, the central bank projected PCE at 2.5%.

The DXY index remained stable and closed the week slightly higher than the previous week. It is currently receiving support around 103.20. It is highly likely to rebound and correct upwards to the 105-105.50 range in the near future.

However, after this rally, the DXY index may reverse and continue its downward trend. This decline could pull the DXY index down to the 102-101 range and even 100 in the medium term.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has been stuck between 4.1% and 4.35% for the past three weeks. This makes the short-term outlook unclear. However, the overall trend remains bearish. Strong resistance is at 4.45-4.5%.

If yields remain below 4.5%, the short-term trend will be a decline to 4% and possibly even 3.8% in the coming weeks.

While the USD strengthened, the EUR/USD exchange rate reversed course and fell, failing to break above 1.0950. The current support level is 1.08. If the EUR falls below this level, it could drop to the 1.0730-1.0700 range. The market expects the EUR to reverse and rise again from 1.08 or around 1.07. Such a recovery would maintain the overall bullish outlook. If the EUR/USD surpasses this level, it will surge to 1.10, followed by a sustained upward trend towards the 1.11-1.12 range.

The currency market has experienced significant volatility in recent months as traders reassessed their initial expectations that President Trump's economic policies would support the USD and weaken other currencies. This has caused the USD to fall 6% against the EUR since mid-January. Since taking office in January, President Trump's statements about imposing and then suspending tariffs on numerous trading partners have caused market anxiety.

USD exchange rate today, March 24: What direction will the USD take? Photo: Reuters

Domestic USD exchange rate today

On the domestic market, at the beginning of trading on March 24, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the US Dollar at 24,813 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange floor increased slightly for buying and selling, currently at: 23,623 VND - 26,003 VND.

The USD exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

USD exchange rate	Buy	Sell
Vietcombank	25,370 VND	25,760 VND
Vietinbank	25,275 VND	25,855 VND
MB	25,400 VND	25,760 VND

* The EUR exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk saw a slight decrease in buying and selling rates, currently at: 25,576 VND – 28,268 VND.

The EUR exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

EUR exchange rate	Buy	Sell
Vietcombank	27,001 VND	28,481 VND
Vietinbank	26,843 VND	28,343 VND
MB	27,260 VND	28,472 VND

* The Japanese Yen exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam's exchange desk saw a slight decrease in buying and selling rates, currently standing at 158 VND – 175 VND.