A survey on delivery times by investment bank Morgan Stanley concluded that iPhone 16 pre-orders were lower than those of its predecessors.

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iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro. Photo: Appleinsider

Although the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus may have sold 37 million units in their first weekend, and Russians are ordering more despite facing significantly higher iPhone prices, Morgan Stanley said in a recent note to investors that its surveys show demand for the iPhone 16 is lower than previously thought.

This survey relies primarily on the delivery times of the new iPhone models to forecast market demand.

Specifically, the average delivery times (compared to 2023) show: iPhone 16 Pro Max: 25.5 days (instead of 43.5 days); iPhone 16 Pro: 18.5 days (instead of 32.5 days); iPhone 16: 9 days (instead of 14 days); iPhone 16 Plus: 7.9 days (instead of 13.9 days).

According to Morgan Stanley, after compiling all the data on iPhone delivery times, the average delivery time for the iPhone 16 from the time of ordering to the present is 14 days.

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Comparison of delivery times for iPhone 16 and earlier models. (Source: Morgan Stanley)

This delivery time is considered the shortest in all cycles over the past five years and is comparable to the delivery time of the iPhone 12 – the iPhone model launched on October 13, 2020. Apple's event that year was held online due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Morgan Stanley concluded that there is over a 50% chance Apple will cut its iPhone 16 production orders. However, the analysts also noted that early-stage product delivery times "offer very limited predictability."

Delivery times always depend on Apple's inventory levels, information that Apple never discloses. Therefore, it's possible that Apple has become better at predicting and producing enough iPhones to meet market demand, thereby improving delivery times.

While it's impossible to draw definitive conclusions, there's at least some logic to comparing an iPhone from any given year to those from previous years.

When comparing the iPhone 16 series to previous years, the iPhone 16 Pro Max has a delivery time that is 14 days shorter than the iPhone 14 Pro Max, and 7 days shorter than the iPhone 13 Pro Max. The iPhone 16 Pro also has a delivery time that is 14 days shorter than the iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley suggests that users initially seem to want to upgrade because they are using older phones, or are looking for improved battery life and camera systems in the new iPhone models. To date, they haven't bought the iPhone 16 specifically for the Apple Intelligence feature. However, Morgan Stanley acknowledges that only a small percentage of those surveyed have used the beta version of iOS 18 with Apple Intelligence.

According to Apple, the Apple Intelligence toolkit is being rolled out in phases with the iOS 18 update. The first beta version will be available next month on iOS 18.1, iPadOS 18.1, and macOS Sequoia 15.1, but only if the device language is set to American English.

Users will have to wait until the iOS 18.2 update, around early December 2024, for the notable features, as well as the expansion to localized English in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and the UK in December. From 2025 onwards, Apple's AI features will be available for more platforms and languages, including Vietnamese, Chinese, English (India), English (Singapore), French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish, and more.

Previously, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also suggested that lower-than-expected demand for the 16 Pro series and delays in Apple Intelligence – a key sales driver for the new generation of iPhones – were the main reasons for the decline in iPhone 16 sales in the first week compared to last year.

Furthermore, fierce competition in the Chinese market, where consumers prioritize domestic products like those from Huawei and Xiaomi, also contributed to the low sales of the iPhone 16 in its first week of release.

Watch the iPhone 16 Pro introduction video . (Source: Apple)

(According to Appleinsider, CNBC, Apple)

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