Practical ability or psychological tactic?

There has been much speculation about the threat posed by Wagner Group when it was stationed in Belarus, a country that shares borders with Ukraine and NATO member states Poland and Lithuania.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned on July 31 that any attack by the Wagner Group on NATO would be considered an attack by Russia on the military alliance.

The statement was made by Ms. Thomas-Greenfield while speaking to reporters in New York about a range of issues, including ending hunger, combating food insecurity in conflicts, and protecting human rights .

When asked about the presence of Wagner troopers near the Polish border and whether she considered it a real threat to NATO, the US Ambassador said: “We are certainly concerned that this group, acting on orders from the Russian government , is a threat to all of us.”

The U.S. official stressed the clear message: "Any Wagner attack on NATO will be considered an attack by the Russian government on this military alliance."

Belarusian armed forces train with Wagner troopers at the Brestsky training ground, near the Polish border, in July 2023. Photo: BelTA

Anxiety

Wagner's redeployment of troops in Belarus following the failed coup in late June is being closely monitored by Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and their Western allies.

The latest intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence on July 30 stated: “Several thousand Wagner troops and around 300 tents and 200 vehicles have been spotted in satellite imagery of their new camp in Tsel, Belarus, approximately 85 km southeast of the Belarusian capital Minsk and 230 km from the Ukrainian border.”

Poland – a country sharing a border with Belarus, which has deployed more than 1,000 troops to its eastern border region as a precaution – is apprehensive about every move of the Russian mercenaries.

"We have information that more than 100 Wagner troopers have advanced toward the Suwalki Corridor, not far from Grodno in Belarus," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at a press conference on July 29.

Grodno is a city located in western Belarus, about 15 km from the border with NATO member Poland and Lithuania. The Suwalki Corridor is a narrow, strategic land corridor running along the Polish-Lithuanian border, connecting Belarus with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.

This 65-kilometer-long strip of land is of immense strategic importance because if Russia and Belarus were to seize it, the Baltic region – including Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – would be isolated, jeopardizing NATO's ability to defend the area.

The map shows the Suwalki Gap – a narrow, strategically important 65-kilometer strip of land running along the Polish-Lithuanian border. Graphic: Euronews

Furthermore, the Polish-Belarusian border has been a source of tension for several years now, following the arrival of a large number of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa, seeking to enter the EU by passing through Poland, as well as Lithuania.

The Polish government accuses Russia and Belarus of using migrants to destabilize Poland and other EU countries. Warsaw calls the exploitation of migration a form of hybrid warfare and has responded by building a high wall along part of Poland's border with Belarus.

Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki noted that 16,000 attempts by migrants from Belarus to cross the border have been recorded this year. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin want to “push them to Poland,” Morawiecki said.

“The situation is becoming increasingly dangerous… It is very possible that they (Wagner soldiers) will disguise themselves as Belarusian border guards and help illegal migrants reach Polish territory, thereby destabilizing Poland.”

In Lithuania, the Deputy Interior Minister warned on July 28 of the possibility of the Baltic nation closing its border with Belarus, also expressing concern that Wagner might be disguised as asylum seekers attempting to cross the shared border between Belarus and EU member states or engaging in provocative actions related to refugees.

Psychological tactics

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in his first face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin since the coup, said that Wagner troopers were “putting him on edge” by calling for “an offensive” into Poland.

"But of course, I will keep them in Belarus, as we agreed," Lukashenko said.

The UK Ministry of Defence, in an intelligence update on July 30, supported the idea that this was purely a psychological tactic rather than any real threat.

Although “hundreds of vehicles have arrived at the base, which was previously almost empty,” most are “trucks and minibuses along with some armored combat vehicles,” the update stated.

"It remains unclear what happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine; it's possible they were forced to return it to the Russian military."

In an article published on July 31, the Kyiv Post quoted the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense as saying that Wagner operatives could be “used for special informational and psychological operations,” such as keeping Poland on high alert and sowing fear and anxiety.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian President's Office, also stated that the idea of ​​a Wagner attack on a NATO country was highly improbable, according to the Kyiv Post.

The tents at the Tsel military base in Osipovichi, a town 230 km north of the Belarus-Ukraine border, may be used as field camps for Wagner troops, July 7, 2023. Photo: Getty Images

According to the Ukrainian newspaper, in an interview with Russian opposition journalist Yulia Latynina, Podolyak dismissed the threats from Wagner troopers against Poland, calling them "unfunny jokes."

Podolyak asserted that such an attack was impossible because the Wagner Group, since the armed rebellion, was no longer the same as it once was.

Furthermore, if Wagner were to actually attack Poland, this would trigger a major international incident. In theory, it could trigger Article 5 – the most famous provision of the NATO Charter on collective defense, which states that an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies.

"Russia has always wanted to show that NATO is just a paper tiger," Dr. Stephen Hall, a lecturer on Russian politics at the University of Bath (UK), told Euronews.

If the U.S.-led military alliance fails to support its allies in the event of an attack – as it is obligated to do – NATO will be “completely destroyed,” Hall said.

Hall suggested that it is also possible that Poland and its neighboring allies are amplifying the threat posed by Wagner in order to garner more support from the EU and NATO.

“Warsaw and Vilnius are naturally worried that Russia, Belarus, or Wagner could cause trouble. At the moment, I think that’s something to be wary of. Anything can happen,” the expert concluded .

Minh Duc (According to Anadolu Agency, Kyiv Post, Euronews, Al Jazeera)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/wagner-tan-cong-vao-nato-kha-nang-thuc-te-hay-don-tam-ly-a619824.html