A diplomatic breakthrough?
According to RT, US President Donald Trump recently stated that he was pleased with the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the progress in negotiations with Iran .
US Vice President JD Vance also expressed a similar view, noting that they had succeeded in creating a mechanism to prevent further escalation between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah and laying the groundwork for a future peace agreement in the Swiss negotiations.
At first glance, this might seem like a diplomatic breakthrough, but the reality is far more complex.
The optimistic rhetoric from the US administration does not change the reality that the negotiation process remains highly unstable and trust between the parties is very low or even non-existent.
Furthermore, while Mr. Vance led the negotiations in Switzerland, Mr. Trump, in his characteristic style, once again criticized Iran, undermining the efforts of his own negotiating team.
As a result, Iran has temporarily withdrawn from the negotiations, although the Trump administration is trying to downplay the significance of the event.
Subsequent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that, despite the discomfort, Iran had no intention of immediately breaking off the negotiation process.
The negotiations have not failed. The communication channels remain operational, the parties continue to exchange signals, and the current timeframe offers further opportunities for coordination.
The situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Officially, the US and Iran are believed to have agreed to establish a line of communication to ensure the safe passage of ships.
Trump hastily declared the strait "completely open." However, sources from Iran paint a completely different picture.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has only allowed a limited number of vessels to pass through. This means that even at the most basic level of information, the parties and media outlets involved are describing events in different ways.
This is precisely why there is no certainty about this strait. American political rhetoric, Iran's assertive actions, and market signals all paint a different picture.
The overall picture is neither transparent nor stable. On the surface, it appears to be de-escalation, but in reality, it resembles a controlled regime of instability, in which each side retains the ability to interpret events in its own favor.
The fact that Brent crude oil prices are currently fluctuating around $78-80 per barrel is good news for the US: An extreme price shock has been avoided at this point, as the market seems to have somewhat accepted the possibility of stability.
But this doesn't mean the crisis is over. The oil market reacts not only to actual events but also to expectations.
If there is a new military incident, an attack on a ship or a blockade of shipping lanes, or a strong statement from either side, oil prices could once again skyrocket to $100 per barrel.
In this case, the current stability would only be temporary and not a sign of a real solution.
Gray area
In this sense, Iran-US relations are currently in a gray area. There is no direct confrontation between the two sides, but neither has any lasting diplomatic solution been reached.
Both sides maintain a channel for negotiations, but have not demonstrated enough trust to reach a lasting agreement. The US is trying to demonstrate that it is in control of the situation and capable of ensuring freedom of navigation.
Conversely, Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz remains its most important leverage point and that any agreement will only be reached under conditions acceptable to Iran.
The main conclusion is that the Strait of Hormuz is not only a shipping corridor, but also an indicator of the dynamics between the US and Iran. As long as there is instability there, the entire framework for negotiations remains unstable.
The parties may claim the situation is under control, but in reality, an incident, a political statement, or a misinterpretation of an action at sea could change everything.
Therefore, it is too early to talk about complete de-escalation. The term "gray zone" is more appropriate: As long as there is still a possibility of reaching an agreement, there is also the risk of new escalation.
Furthermore, the Israeli factor cannot be eliminated. An agreement between Iran and the US would not exist in a vacuum, but in a regional environment where Israel remains an independent entity with its own interests, threats, and red lines.
Factors such as Lebanon and Hezbollah, the security of Israel's northern border, and Iran's influence over armed movements in the region will all directly or indirectly affect the negotiations.
Even if the US and Iran officially agree on de-escalation parameters, it remains unclear whether the negotiations can avoid external pressure.
One separate issue that has not disappeared from the agenda is Iran's nuclear program.
Formally, Iran can still claim its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. But the context has changed.
Prior to February 28th, there had been no significant or active discussions in Iran about progressing toward nuclear weapons development, but now these discussions have become a reality.
It cannot simply be removed from the agenda or pretended that nothing happened.
The U.S. now has to contend not only with the technical specifications of Iran's nuclear program, but also with the new political climate in Iran.
Following recent military pressure, a tougher stance from Iranian officials is gaining increasing support. All of this makes the current situation ambiguous.
As long as there is still a chance of reaching an agreement, it will not depend on empty rhetoric, but on the ability of the US and Iran to move from signals to real political concessions.
Source: https://giaoducthoidai.vn/khi-eo-bien-hormuz-giu-the-gioi-lam-con-tin-post782738.html
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