Scenarios for Indonesia to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

With three matches remaining in Group C, "Garuda" still has a chance to break into the top two, thereby securing a direct spot at the biggest football event on the planet.

Indonesia still has hope of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

The heavy 1-5 defeat against Australia on March 20th in Sydney dealt a major blow to Indonesia's ambitions in their quest to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. However, coach Patrick Kluivert and his players still have a chance to rectify the situation.

The matches against Bahrain (March 25), China (June 5), and Japan (June 10) will be crucial tests that will determine the fate of coach Patrick Kluivert and his players. Below are the possible scenarios for Indonesia to realize their historic dream.

Winning all three of the last matches.

Following their crushing defeat against Australia, Indonesia must aim to secure all nine points from their next three matches to raise their total to 15. The matches against Bahrain and China are seen as great opportunities, as these are two opponents within the "Garuda" group's reach.

Bahrain is not currently a dominant team, while China, despite their improvement, is still within Indonesia's reach if they maintain their focus and form.

The biggest challenge will come in the final matchday, when Indonesia faces Japan – a team that has already secured qualification as the dominant force in Group C. However, on June 10th, Japan may not field their strongest team after officially securing their World Cup spot.

Therefore, Indonesia has the right to dream of a victory against the "Blue Samurai". Obviously, for this scenario to become a reality and secure second place, Indonesia needs to wait for the results of other matches in the group.

Specifically, Australia (10 points) is not allowed to gain more than 5 points in their remaining 3 matches, and Saudi Arabia (6 points) is not allowed to gain more than 9 points in their final 4 matches.

13 points still offers hope.

Even if they can't pull off a miracle against Japan, Indonesia can still harbor hope with a scenario where they win against Bahrain and China, and draw with Japan in the final match. This result would bring them 7 points, raising their total to 13.

This number isn't exceptionally high, but it's still enough to compete for second place should direct rivals stumble. Calculations show Indonesia could finish second in the group if Japan finishes the qualifying round with 24 points, while Australia and Saudi Arabia both reach a maximum of 12 points.

Indonesia disappoints against Australia.

At the same time, China needs to be kept at 9 points and Bahrain must not exceed 8 points. The defeat against Australia was a regrettable setback, but if "Garuda" makes good use of the two matches against Bahrain and China - along with earning a point against Japan, they could completely overtake them thanks to the goal difference.

12 points and the battle for tie-breaking criteria.

In a worse-case scenario, if Indonesia not only loses to Australia but also stumbles against Japan, the opportunity is not entirely closed. By defeating Bahrain and China, "Garuda" will accumulate 12 points by the end of the qualifying round.

This is a more realistic scenario, as Japan remains a difficult opponent for Indonesia to overcome under the current circumstances. To turn 12 points into a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup, Indonesia needs a bit of luck from other results.

Specifically, they could finish second if they are tied on points with Australia (12 points) and surpass them on goal difference, while Saudi Arabia does not exceed 11 points, China stops at 9 points, and Bahrain only has 6 points.

Despite suffering two defeats against strong teams, beating Bahrain and China – two rivals in the same group of direct competitors – will be key to keeping Indonesia's World Cup dream burning.

Despite being in a difficult position after their heavy defeat in Sydney, the Indonesian national team still holds its destiny in its own hands with three upcoming matches. Bahrain and China are two tests where "Garuda" cannot afford to slip up, while the clash with Japan will require exceptional effort or a bit of luck from the circumstances.