Will there be power shortages during peak summer?

It is forecasted that this summer, the national power system will face a lot of pressure in operation, especially when the weather is extremely hot, there is little rain, and many hydroelectric reservoirs have very low water levels. "By all means, avoid power shortages" is the task that the Ministry of Industry and Trade is directing its units to do.

Hydroelectric reservoir lacks water; coal and gas are scarce.

Although it is just the beginning of summer, the power supply situation for the system is very tense. Typically, on May 6, the national power consumption reached more than 43,300 MW and the national power consumption on this day also reached more than 895 million kWh. It is forecasted that in June and July, the North will enter the peak of hot weather, the load of the national power system will continue to increase and be higher than the national power system operation plan approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In a recent report sent to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) used the term emergency to describe the difficulties in operating the system and ensuring electricity supply in the coming period. EVN emphasized that hydropower is considered the baseload source and has the cheapest cost among power sources, but hydrological developments are unfavorable. Coal and gas power are also baseload sources with a large proportion, but the coal shortage is becoming serious.

EVN warns: Operating the power system during the peak hot months (June and July) will be very difficult, especially the Northern power system will face a situation of not being able to meet the peak load of the system with the largest capacity shortage of about 1,600MW to 4,900MW.

Sharing specifically about the hydrological situation of hydropower reservoirs in recent months, EVN said that there have been many unfavorable developments, significantly lower than the average of many years. By early May 2023, many hydropower reservoirs in the system had reached low water levels, posing a risk of affecting the security of electricity supply and serving people's needs during the remaining time of the 2023 dry season.

Specifically, 10 hydropower reservoirs under EVN and many hydropower reservoirs of investors other than EVN have reached or are below the dead water level; including EVN's hydropower reservoirs such as: Lai Chau , Tri An, Ialy, Ban Chat, Huoi Quang, Trung Son, Buon Kuop, Buon Tua Srah, Srepok 3, Song Ba Ha. This leads to the remaining output in EVN's hydropower reservoirs being 4.5 billion kWh, 1.6 billion kWh lower than planned, 4.1 billion kWh lower than the same period in 2022.

Meanwhile, the situation of coal and gas fuel is not very optimistic. The domestic coal supply situation of Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (TKV) and Dong Bac Corporation is expected to be 46 million tons, lower than the approved coal supply chart for electricity production in 2023 of more than 6 million tons.

Coal imports are also difficult while the mobilized source has increased, resulting in a shortage of coal for operation. Gas supply to gas-fired thermal power plants has also decreased compared to previous years, as some mines have officially entered a decline. Specifically, the expected output in 2023 is 5.6 billion ^m3 , lower than in 2022 at 1.31 billion ^m3 , while some mines have had continuous incidents, making gas supply for electricity production even more difficult.

Importing electricity from China and Laos is still facing many difficulties. According to the China electricity purchase contract, it is expected that in 2023, it will purchase a total output of 1.65 billion kWh. However, in the recent period, China announced difficulties in supplying electricity to Yunnan province, so the expected output that Vietnam can buy from you in 2023 will only reach 1.1 billion kWh, equal to 68% of the plan.

For Laos, EVN has agreed with the investor and submitted to the Ministry of Industry and Trade to submit to the Government the policy of selling electricity to serve the testing and start-up of power plants in the Nam Mo and Nam Kong hydropower plant clusters, but so far it has not been approved.

According to the forecast of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the El Nino phenomenon will occur in the last months of 2023, causing high temperatures and low rainfall compared to the average of many years. Therefore, the water flow to the lake in the last months of the year will continue to decrease. If the drought is severe and widespread, there is no flood or the flood is low, the power supply situation may continue to be difficult in the coming time.

How to deal with power shortage?

In the current urgent context of electricity supply, recently, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien had a meeting with the State Capital Management Committee at Enterprises, EVN, Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PVN), TKV, and Dong Bac Corporation on the plan to supply electricity and operate the national power system during the peak hot months of 2023.

At the meeting, Minister Nguyen Hong Dien requested relevant units and enterprises to do everything possible to prevent power shortages. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider handling irresponsible individuals and organizations if power shortages occur due to subjective reasons.

To cope with the tense situation in power supply, EVN General Director Tran Dinh Nhan said that according to the plan, in 2023, EVN will optimally mobilize hydropower sources in the North, combine with increasing maximum transmission from the Central region to the North, regulate and maintain water levels in reservoirs at the planned water level until the end of May 2023 to increase available capacity for hydropower plants.

At the same time, strengthen inspection, consolidate and overcome shortcomings to improve the reliability and availability of generators, transmission lines/transformer stations; coordinate with domestic fuel suppliers to have plans to provide enough fuel for power generation. EVN will also shift peak hours of small hydropower sources according to the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Trade; increase negotiations to buy electricity from abroad.

For transitional renewable energy projects, EVN will continue to negotiate and agree on temporary prices for operation until the two sides agree on official electricity prices, in order to promptly exploit and supply the power system. Referring to long-term solutions for electricity supply in the North, Mr. Tran Dinh Nhan said that there should be a mechanism to develop and supplement the planning of renewable energy sources in the North to ensure electricity supply in the following years. There should be a mechanism to immediately encourage the development of rooftop solar power sources in the North for the purpose of self-consumption for on-site load needs...

Ensuring coal and gas sources for electricity production is EVN's proposal to PVN, TKV and Dong Bac Corporation. Representatives of these units have also committed to creating maximum conditions to supply coal and gas for electricity generation to ensure electricity supply for the country.

Previously, at the meeting with EVN, on behalf of Dong Bac Corporation, Colonel Do Manh Kham, General Director, emphasized that the corporation is always aware of its responsibility to ensure coal for power generation and has directed units to create maximum conditions to supply coal for power generation. However, Dong Bac Corporation also encountered many difficulties in exploitation, making it difficult to increase coal output. On the side of TKV, Mr. Dang Thanh Hai, General Director, affirmed that TKV will strive to ensure sufficient coal supply for power generation.

Besides solutions regarding supply sources, saving electricity and using electricity efficiently are very important solutions to ensure enough electricity during peak hot periods.

VU DUNG

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