Forecasts indicate that this summer, the national power grid will face significant operational pressures, especially with intense heat, little rain, and very low water levels in many hydropower reservoirs. "Ensuring electricity shortages by all means" is the current directive from the Ministry of Industry and Trade to all relevant units.
Hydroelectric reservoirs are short of water; coal and gas are scarce.
Although summer has only just begun, the power supply situation for the system is already very strained. For example, on May 6th, nationwide power consumption reached over 43,300 MW, and electricity production on that day also exceeded 895 million kWh. Forecasts indicate that in June and July, the North will enter the peak of the hot season, and the national power system's load will continue to increase and exceed the national power system operation plan approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
In a recent report to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) used the term "emergency" to describe the difficulties in operating the system and ensuring electricity supply in the coming period. EVN emphasized that hydropower is considered the cheapest and most efficient source of electricity, but unfavorable hydrological conditions are affecting it. Coal and gas-fired power plants also account for a large proportion of the electricity supply, but a severe coal shortage is currently occurring.
EVN warns that operating the power system during the peak hot months (June and July) will be very difficult, especially the power system in the North, which will face a situation where it cannot meet the peak load of the system with the largest power deficit ranging from approximately 1,600MW to 4,900MW.
Sharing specific information about the hydrological situation of hydropower reservoirs in the past few months, EVN stated that there have been many unfavorable developments, with water levels significantly lower than the multi-year average. By early May 2023, many hydropower reservoirs in the system had reached low water levels, posing a risk to electricity supply security and meeting the needs of the population for the remainder of the 2023 dry season.
Specifically, 10 hydropower reservoirs belonging to EVN and many hydropower reservoirs owned by investors outside EVN have reached or are below the dead water level; including EVN's hydropower reservoirs such as Lai Chau , Tri An, Ialy, Ban Chat, Huoi Quang, Trung Son, Buon Kuop, Buon Tua Srah, Srepok 3, and Song Ba Ha. This has resulted in a remaining output of 4.5 billion kWh in EVN's hydropower reservoirs, 1.6 billion kWh lower than planned and 4.1 billion kWh lower than the same period in 2022.
Meanwhile, the situation regarding coal and gas fuels is also not very promising. The supply of domestically produced and blended coal by the Vietnam Coal and Mineral Corporation (TKV) and the Northeast Corporation is projected at 46 million tons, which is more than 6 million tons lower than the approved coal supply schedule for electricity production in 2023.
Importing coal is also difficult, while increased mobilization of resources has led to a shortage of coal for operation. Gas supply to gas-fired power plants has also decreased compared to previous years, due to some major fields officially entering decline. Specifically, the projected production for 2023 is 5.6 billion m³ , lower than 1.31 billion m³ in 2022, while some fields are experiencing continuous incidents, making gas supply for electricity production even more challenging.
Importing electricity from China and Laos still faces many difficulties. According to the electricity purchase contract with China, the total volume to be purchased in 2023 was projected to be 1.65 billion kWh. However, recently, China has reported difficulties in supplying electricity to Yunnan province, therefore, the projected volume Vietnam will purchase from China in 2023 is only 1.1 billion kWh, equivalent to 68% of the plan.
Regarding Laos, EVN has agreed with the investor and submitted a proposal to the Ministry of Industry and Trade to present to the Government on the policy of selling electricity to serve the testing and commissioning of power plants in the Nam Mo and Nam Kong hydropower plant complex; however, it has not yet been approved.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the El Nino phenomenon will occur in the last months of 2023, causing temperatures to rise and rainfall to decrease compared to the multi-year average. Therefore, water inflow into reservoirs in the last months of the year will continue to trend downwards. If severe drought occurs on a wide scale, with no or very low flood levels, the electricity supply situation may continue to be difficult in the coming period.
How to cope with power shortages?
Given the current urgent need for electricity supply, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien recently held a meeting with the State Capital Management Committee at Enterprises, EVN, Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PVN), TKV, and the Northeast Corporation to discuss the plan for electricity supply and operation of the national power system during the peak hot months of 2023.
At the meeting, Minister Nguyen Hong Dien requested that relevant units and businesses do everything possible to prevent power shortages. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider taking action against individuals and organizations that are irresponsible if power shortages occur due to subjective reasons.
To address the strained electricity supply situation, EVN General Director Tran Dinh Nhan stated that, according to the plan, in 2023, EVN will optimally mobilize hydropower sources in the North, combined with increasing maximum transmission from the Central region to the North, and regulating and maintaining water levels in reservoirs at planned levels until the end of May 2023 to increase the available capacity of hydropower plants.
In addition, EVN will strengthen inspections, reinforce and rectify defects to improve the reliability and availability of power generation units and transmission lines/substations; coordinate with domestic fuel suppliers to ensure sufficient fuel supply for power generation. EVN will also shift peak hours for small hydropower sources according to the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Trade; and strengthen negotiations to purchase electricity from abroad.
For transitional renewable energy projects, EVN will continue to negotiate and agree on temporary operating prices until both sides agree on the official electricity price, in order to promptly exploit and supply the power system. Regarding long-term solutions for electricity supply in the North, Mr. Tran Dinh Nhan suggested that a mechanism is needed to develop and supplement the planning of renewable energy sources in the Northern region to ensure electricity supply in the coming years. A mechanism should be in place to immediately encourage the development of rooftop solar power sources in the North for self-consumption of local load needs...
Ensuring the supply of coal and gas for electricity production is a request from EVN to PVN, TKV, and the Northeast Corporation. Representatives from these units have also committed to creating the best possible conditions to supply coal and gas for power generation in order to ensure electricity supply for the country.
Earlier, during a meeting with EVN, Colonel Do Manh Kham, General Director of the Northeast Corporation, emphasized that the corporation is always aware of its responsibility to ensure coal supply for power generation and has directed its units to create the best possible conditions for supplying coal for power generation. However, the Northeast Corporation also faces many difficulties in mining, making it difficult to increase coal production. On the TKV side, Mr. Dang Thanh Hai, General Director, affirmed that TKV will strive to ensure sufficient coal supply for electricity production.
Besides solutions related to supply, saving electricity and using it efficiently are crucial measures to ensure sufficient power during peak periods of hot weather.
VU DUNG
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