Chechen forces attempted to replace Wagner.

Following Wagner's rebellion, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is attempting to demonstrate his loyalty to President Vladimir Putin.

General Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Republic of Russia, is seeking to emphasize his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. On June 28, he posted a photo of himself with Putin on Telegram and boasted about their meeting the day before.

Hours after Wagner's forces advanced toward Moscow on June 24, a battalion under Kadyrov posted a video on Telegram showing its fighters guarding an uninhabited bridge. "Whoever they are, we will bury the traitors and complete any assigned task," the Chechen member declared on camera.

However, the videos were allegedly filmed in Moscow on the afternoon of June 24, after Wagner's rebellion had ended, and in Kostroma, a city that Yevgeny Prigozhin's forces had not visited during that time.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a photo posted on June 28. Photo: Telegram/Kadyrov

Kadyrov led the Chechen Republic from 2007 and became one of President Putin's closest allies. However, observers believe that Chechen forces have focused more on their social media presence than on actual battlefield success. This has led them to doubt Chechen forces' ability to provide Russia with the same level of support as Wagner.

Chechen forces have been operating in the Ukrainian battlefield since February 2022. Kadyrov and other Chechen members constantly post videos on social media, often showing the forces in uniform marching in some area, but with very little sign of actual combat.

Their actual military successes have also been limited. "The Chechen forces project a strong image, parading around with weapons and equipment. But on the Ukrainian battlefield, we haven't seen them make any significant impact, especially along the front lines," said Alex Kokcharov, an analyst specializing in Russia.

Kokcharov added that Chechen forces were most clearly present in areas already under Russian control. Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group achieved real successes during its time in the conflict, such as assisting Russia in capturing the city of Bakhmut.

Right from the start of the Russian campaign, Kadyrov sent numerous Chechen units to the front lines, where they were expected to play a key role in Moscow's plan to control Kyiv. However, the units suffered heavy losses in the early days, causing Kadyrov to reconsider his decision to participate, according to Emil Aslan, a professor of security studies at Charles University in Prague.

"He understood that the war would cause heavy losses to his forces, and he couldn't afford to accept that," Aslan said, adding that Kadyrov relied on the experienced corps to maintain his position domestically.

"To maintain power, Kadyrov needs two things: the support of President Putin and the strength of his own army. Therefore, he has to find ways to show that he is deploying forces to fight for President Putin, while also trying to keep his most experienced fighters alive," Aslan said.

While the image of Chechen forces faded, Wagner's role gained more attention last September, when Russian military units were forced to retreat in the face of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Kadyrov had expressed sympathy for Prigozhin when Wagner criticized some Russian military officials, accusing them of failing to supply ammunition. However, their relationship was often strained with mutual criticism and retaliatory remarks, particularly when Prigozhin commented that Chechen forces could not fully control Donetsk.

Location of Chechnya. Graphic: FT

Currently, Chechen forces will likely focus on demonstrating their capabilities to prove the underestimations leveled against them wrong. While their frontline capabilities remain unclear, one thing is certain: they will coordinate better with regular Russian forces than Wagner. Kadyrov's troops signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense in mid-June, after Moscow requested all volunteer units sign contracts before July 1st.

On June 24, as Wagner's rebellion was unfolding, General Kadyrov took to Telegram to condemn Wagner's "cowardly betrayal" and emphasized his loyalty to Putin. "I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances. We have the President, who understands the situation better than any strategist," he said.

Thanh Tam (According to FT )

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