NATO is struggling to find a new secretary-general.

The conflict in Ukraine has significantly altered the situation and created a new bright spot for NATO. Therefore, the process of finding a NATO secretary general during this period requires more careful consideration, as any move by the alliance must be extremely cautious.

The most promising candidates

According to Reuters, with time running out, the race for NATO's secretary-general is heating up. There is already speculation about potential candidates to replace Stoltenberg.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during his visit to Germany on April 21.

During his visit to Germany last week, British Defence Minister Ben Wallace expressed his interest in becoming the next leader of NATO and said he "liked the job," according to The Telegraph.

Wallace told the German news agency DPA that becoming secretary-general of the transatlantic alliance "is a great job" but that it "is not my prerogative."

Furthermore, NATO members are also seeking the alliance's first female secretary-general, while others prefer the position to be filled by a former head of state to ensure NATO maintains maximum political influence. There are also suggestions that the NATO leader should be someone from a European Union (EU) member state to strengthen ties between the two alliances.

Therefore, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is considered a strong candidate, as she can meet all three criteria. NATO diplomats say they are seriously considering supporting Frederiksen, although she says she is not interested in the position.

Speculation about Frederiksen becoming the next NATO leader intensified after the White House confirmed she would meet with US President Joe Biden in early June. Traditionally, the position of NATO Secretary General has gone to a European, but any serious candidate needs the support of Washington, the alliance's leading power.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks at her office in Copenhagen, March 2020.

If chosen, Frederiksen would be the third consecutive NATO leader from a Nordic country. However, she would have to relinquish her position as Prime Minister of Norway, a move that political commentators believe would push her fragile government to the brink of collapse.

However, a source familiar with the matter said the Biden administration has yet to pinpoint a candidate and "heated debates" are underway among top aides. According to the State Department, it is too early to speculate on who Washington will support.

Other possibilities

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (from Germany), and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland were also mentioned in discussions among diplomats and in the press, according to Reuters.

However, diplomats say that Kallas, compared to other NATO members, is considered too hawkish toward Russia. Being too tough on Russia would create many difficulties for NATO at this time, as the alliance must both ensure its allies support Ukraine and avoid any escalation that could draw NATO into a direct war with Russia.

Meanwhile, Germany wants von der Leyen to remain to run the EC. Freeland, on the other hand, faces significant obstacles as a non-European and from a country considered slow in defense spending.

Other names considered included Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. However, Rutte stated he did not want to take on the role, while Sanchez was busy with a general election later this year.

NATO countries typically decide who will be the secretary-general in closed-door meetings. However, the decision is not clear-cut, and primarily takes place in consultations between leaders and diplomats. These consultations continue until all NATO members agree that they have reached a consensus.

If NATO fails to agree on a candidate, Stoltenberg's term will likely be extended, at least until another NATO summit in 2024. However, Stoltenberg has stated that he does not wish to stay any longer.

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