Ukraine's risk of making a mistake in Bakhmut

Ukraine is concentrating its most elite forces to retake Bakhmut, but some experts believe this may be a misguided tactic.

In recent days, the Ukrainian army has successively announced the recapture of the villages of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka in the Donetsk province, marking the first step in its efforts to retake the city of Bakhmut.

This is the city that Kyiv lost to Russia in May, after what is considered the bloodiest and longest battle since the conflict began. An estimated thousands of soldiers on each side have died after 10 months of fighting here, earning Bakhmut the nickname "the meat grinder".

According to RT 's military expert Vladislav Ugolny, to support the operation to retake Bakhmut, Ukraine mobilized Army Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, one of the country's best generals, along with a large force of elite units such as the 3rd Independent Assault Brigade and the 80th Air Assault Brigade.

Members of Ukraine's 3rd Independent Assault Brigade in Bakhmut on September 7. Photo: Reuters

Kyiv has previously stated that its military wants to control Bakhmut to contain Russian forces, prevent them from advancing further west, and directly target Ukraine's defenses in the region. Meanwhile, Ugolny argues that Ukraine is focusing its efforts on retaking Bakhmut because it is a matter of "honor" for Kyiv.

In the early stages of the conflict, Bakhmut was seen as a symbol of Ukraine's resistance against Russia. Images of the fighting in the city were constantly updated by Ukrainians on social media, while "Bakhmut will hold out" was one of the most popular slogans in Ukraine at the time.

"Losing this iconic city for media is a painful defeat for Ukraine, so Kyiv wants to get it back," Ugolny said.

Experts and Western officials have repeatedly criticized Ukraine for pouring so many valuable resources into defending Bakhmut, including units formed for the counter-offensive which were also deployed in the battle and suffered heavy losses.

In March, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asserted that Bakhmut held little strategic value and that losing the city would not mean Ukraine would lose the initiative in the conflict.

"One of the reasons why Ukraine's counter-offensive is progressing slowly is because President Zelensky did not heed American advice," Ugolny stated.

Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive in June, but its pace has not been as rapid as expected. In over three months of intense fighting, Ukrainian units have only advanced about 15 km along the three most successful operational axes.

On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine only managed to break through Russia's first line of defense in the strategic village of Rabotino by the end of August and is now facing difficulties in its efforts to advance further.

Last week, The Economist noted that Ukraine's efforts to retake Bakhmut were significantly impacting the counteroffensive in the south, as Kyiv's most experienced brigades had been deployed to Bakhmut, a front where Ukrainian forces had only made "modest progress".

Meduza, an independent Lithuanian-based media outlet specializing in reporting on Russia, also argued that the capture of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka was not a major breakthrough, as Russian troops had retreated behind the Bakhmut–Horlivka railway line and established new defensive lines.

Ukrainian M109 self-propelled artillery in Donetsk province on September 11. Photo: Reuters

Even if Ukraine regains control of Bakhmut, it is unlikely to gain significant strategic advantages, as the loss of the city would not affect Russia's logistical network. Meduza argues that the area where Ukraine needs to concentrate its resources is the southern front, where they have breached Russia's first line of defense.

According to expert Ulgony, Ukraine has not learned from the previous phase of fighting in Bahkmut and is "falling into the same trap," which is wasting too many resources on unrealistic goals.

"The cost of advancing in this direction is growing, while the chances of achieving real success remain very small," Ulgony observed.

However, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, argue that Ukraine's offensive in Bakhmut also helped Kyiv tie down many of Russia's elite airborne units, thus thinning Moscow's forces on the southern front.

"Two of Russia's four airborne divisions and three of its four airborne brigades are on defensive duty in Bakhmut. Russia does not have enough reserve forces to mobilize to stop Ukraine's main counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia," ISW stated, adding that Ukraine needs to continue conducting large-scale operations in Bakhmut to distract Russian forces.

Pham Giang (According to RT, Economist )

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