Risk of collision between asteroid YR4 and Earth.

The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) once warned that asteroid 2024 YR4 posed a risk of colliding with Earth in December 2032.

NASA estimates asteroid 2024 YR4 to have a diameter of approximately 40-90 meters. Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very low probability of colliding with Earth in 2032. According to the latest observations, the likelihood of a collision with Earth has now decreased to almost zero.

The probability of this asteroid colliding with Earth will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to monitor it. By April 2025, the object will be so far away that it will be difficult for Earth-based telescopes to detect. Further updates on the asteroid are expected in 2028, when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth again and becomes bright enough to be detected.

However, NASA assesses that 2024 YR4 is currently the most dangerous space object near Earth. Its impact on Earth would be equivalent to a nuclear bomb. If it were to collide with Earth, it would have the potential to flatten an entire city.

Nguy cơ va chạm giữa tiểu hành tinh YR4 với Trái đất - Ảnh 1.

NASA has refined its calculations and confirmed the risk is now only 0.28%. The likelihood of an asteroid collision varies depending on observational data. Initially, the trajectory is determined on the ground, then simulated using precise models to predict the path.

Although near-Earth objects remain a long-term threat, space agencies around the world have developed strategies to mitigate potential impacts.

China has launched a planetary defense initiative to prevent 2024 YR4 from colliding with Earth. The State Administration of Science , Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND) recently announced the establishment of a specialized space defense team. This development signals China's increasing focus on space security. The development of this defense team has been rapidly underway following the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 by the University of Hawaii Astronomy Institute in late December 2024.

In March 2023, NASA released its most detailed report yet on the agency's Double Asteroid Redirection Experiment (DART) mission. DART uses spacecraft to alter the orbit of a celestial body, based on a mechanism that uses vertical kinetic energy to push the object out of its path, enough to keep Earth safe.