With a strong rebound, is the market peaking?

World coffee prices at 4:30 AM on October 12, 2024, were updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) (MXV continuously updates world coffee prices, matching those of exchanges worldwide; it is the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates prices linked to exchanges around the world).

Today's online coffee prices from the three main futures exchanges, ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US, and B3 Brazil, are continuously updated by Y5Cafe throughout the trading hours and are also updated on www.giacaphe.com as follows:

Coffee prices today, October 12, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

At the close of trading on October 12, 2024, at 4:30 AM, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange were trading at 4,426 - 4,826 tons. Specifically, the November 2024 delivery contract was 4,826 USD/ton, down 88 USD/ton; the January 2025 delivery contract was 4,680 USD/ton, down 62 USD/ton; the March 2025 delivery contract was 4,540 USD/ton, down 58 USD/ton; and the May 2025 delivery contract was 4,426 USD/ton, down 49 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on October 12, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on the morning of October 12, 2024, were predominantly in the red, falling by 4.70 - 4.90 cents/lb. Specifically, the December 2024 delivery contract was 252.05 cents/lb, down 2.70%; the March 2025 contract was 250.75 cents/lb, down 2.70%; the May 2025 contract was 248.90 cents/lb (down 2.70%); and the July 2025 contract was 246.25 cents/lb, down 2.90%.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on October 12, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices were in the red on the morning of October 12, 2024. Specifically, the December 2024 delivery contract was $304.70/ton, down 0.51%; the March 2025 contract was $303.90/ton (down 0.73%); the May 2025 contract was $305.10/ton, down 1.15%; and the July 2025 contract was $301.45/ton, down 1.26%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 12/10/2024: Tăng mạnh trở lại, thị trường đang đạt đỉnh?

Coffee prices today, October 12, 2024: A strong surge is emerging again; is the market peaking?

Domestic coffee prices, updated at 4:30 AM on October 12, 2024, are as follows: The domestic coffee market saw a slight increase in some localities today, averaging 500 VND/kg, ranging from 113,300 to 114,100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 114,000 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 114,100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 114,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg; in Pleiku and La Grai it is 113,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 114,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 114,100 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is being purchased at 113,300 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Today's coffee prices (October 12th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 114,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg; in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at 113,900 VND/kg.

Despite rising raw coffee prices, experts believe coffee has not yet become a luxury item. Mr. Nguyen Huu Long, Director of VCA, affirmed that coffee remains a highly profitable business with low costs.

The current price of raw coffee beans is around 120,000 VND/kg, allowing for the production of 50 to 100 cups of coffee. The production cost per cup ranges from only 2,000 to 4,000 VND, while large coffee chains like Highlands, Phuc Long, and The Coffee House maintain prices from 30,000 to 40,000 VND per cup.

However, experts advise that cafes need to adjust prices carefully to avoid losing customers due to price sensitivity.

Current coffee prices are highly volatile, heavily influenced by speculators, making price predictions difficult. Businesses need to be cautious when buying and selling at high prices. Coffee prices are expected to remain high, above $4,000 per ton, for the next five years.

Global coffee consumption habits are gradually changing, with consumers increasingly favoring organic coffee for its health benefits. Producers need to innovate their products to adapt to this trend.

Meanwhile, commodity markets have been relatively stable recently due to tensions in the Middle East. Investors are awaiting financial data from the US to assess the likelihood of a second interest rate cut.

In the first nine months of the year, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.7% compared to the same period last year. However, due to high prices, export revenue set a new record of $4.3 billion, an increase of 37.8% compared to the same period in 2023.

Thus, Vietnam has a great opportunity to increase the value of its coffee exports, but it also needs to make efforts to adopt sustainable farming methods to ensure the maintenance of long-term growth.