FIFA's dilemma

To date, the International Football Federation (FIFA) has not made an official announcement regarding whether the Iranian national team will participate in the 2026 World Cup finals.

FIFA remains inactive regarding how to resolve the Iran issue - Photo: AFP

With less than three months to go, the 2026 World Cup will kick off in the US, Canada, and Mexico. However, FIFA is facing an extremely complicated situation. The trouble stems from military conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran.

Difficulty making decisions

Having qualified for the 2026 World Cup, the Iranian national team is in Group G. According to the draw, all three of their group stage matches are scheduled to take place in the United States: against New Zealand (June 15, Los Angeles), Belgium (June 21, Los Angeles), and Egypt (June 26, Seattle).

However, Iran's Sports Minister, Ahmad Donyamali, declared that the Iranian team would definitely not participate due to security concerns, while also strongly criticizing the host country, the United States.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump sent completely contradictory signals. Although FIFA President Gianni Infantino confidently asserted that Trump "very much welcomes" the Iranian team, Trump himself later implied that Iran's participation was "inappropriate and unsafe for their lives."

Amidst the deadlock, there is a plan to move Iran's matches to Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has affirmed their willingness to host the games. Meanwhile, the New Zealand team, which is expected to be based in San Diego near the Mexican border, has indicated its readiness to relocate outside the United States.

However, moving the competition venue so close to the opening day is truly a logistical nightmare. This decision will severely impact millions of tickets already sold, disrupt television broadcasting rights contracts, and threaten security systems.

What would happen if the Iranian team withdrew?

If Iran insists on boycotting or is banned from entering the US, FIFA will be forced to activate an unprecedented emergency clause in the modern era.

According to Articles 6.5 and 6.7 of the 2026 World Cup Regulations, FIFA has "full discretion" when a member withdraws due to "force majeure". Accordingly, FIFA can maintain the tournament structure despite the absence or find a replacement team.

Scenario 1: Cancel Iran's three matches, turning Group G into a three-team group. Historically, the 1950 World Cup featured 13 teams after Scotland, Türkiye, India, and France withdrew. However, in today's era of commercialized and globalized football, canceling three matches would disrupt the tournament structure, cause significant financial losses, and seriously violate multi-billion dollar television rights contracts.

Second scenario: Find a replacement team. The biggest challenge is the time limit and the fairness of sportsmanship. The Asian regional qualifiers are organized into many stages, making the selection process extremely complicated.

For example, in Group A of the third qualifying round, Iran finished first, Uzbekistan finished second, and secured direct qualification. Third-placed UAE and fourth-placed Qatar had to advance to the fourth round – where Qatar successfully secured their place. UAE then suffered a heartbreaking defeat to Iraq in the play-off for a last-chance qualification spot.

Currently, Iraq is frantically preparing for a crucial intercontinental play-off match against a South American or CONCACAF representative, either Bolivia or Suriname, on March 31st.

Furthermore, with its prerogative, FIFA can also bypass Asia to select the losing team in the intercontinental play-off, or even name the highest-ranked FIFA team that failed to qualify, such as the Italian national team.

In terms of precedent, at the 2025 Club World Cup in the USA, when Mexican club León was disqualified at the last minute due to ownership violations, FIFA immediately organized an emergency play-off match. As a result, LAFC defeated Club América to replace León.

While FIFA could certainly adopt a similar play-off model, international football requires far more complex logistical preparations, visa procedures, and security measures.

The countdown clock to the opening of the 2026 World Cup is still ticking. All eyes in the football world are on President Gianni Infantino and FIFA officials. Any decision they make in the coming days will affect the history of the most exciting football tournament on the planet.

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THANH DINH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/the-kho-cua-fifa-20260326235529671.htm