Image 1: MXV-Index
Silver prices rise to their highest level in nearly 14 years.
According to MXV, the metals group led the overall market trend last week with overwhelming buying pressure on 8 out of 10 commodities. Silver was the highlight, with the December futures contract price rising nearly 3% to $40.72 per ounce – the highest level in almost 14 years, marking the second consecutive week of gains.
First, expectations that the Fed will soon ease monetary policy have significantly impacted the performance of this commodity. The market is now almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, with the probability according to CME FedWatch having increased to 87.4% from 84.7% a week earlier. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the Fed may continue to cut interest rates in December and maintain quarterly reductions throughout 2026, bringing rates to 2.75-3%. Lower interest rates will weaken the US dollar, thereby making assets priced in this currency, such as silver, cheaper for international investors, stimulating buying.
Furthermore, recent economic data showing a weakening US labor market has reinforced expectations of Fed easing policy. Unemployment claims remain at their highest level in three years, and a sharp decline in non-farm employment has increased pressure on the Fed to support economic growth.
Furthermore, escalating trade and geopolitical tensions have also fueled demand for safe havens. The US imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian goods, along with tougher signals toward Russia, has led capital to seek refuge in silver, alongside gold, as a risk-hedging channel.
Furthermore, the wave of investment in physical silver continues to increase, providing additional support for prices. In the US, accumulated silver holdings from 2010-2024 reached 1.5 billion ounces, equivalent to 70% of the value of gold investments, significantly higher than the global average. In India, demand for silver bars and coins is expected to increase by 21% in 2024 due to attractive domestic prices.
This impact also spread to the domestic market. As of the morning of September 1st, the price of 999 silver in Hanoi reached 1.263-1.296 million VND/ounce, while in Ho Chi Minh City it was 1.265-1.302 million VND/ounce, both increasing by about 2% compared to a week earlier.
Coffee prices continue to rise sharply amid supply constraints.
In the industrial raw materials market, the prices of both coffee commodities continued their upward trend amid concerns about production in Brazil. Specifically, Arabica coffee prices rose by more than 2% to $8,512 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased by more than 3.5%, reaching $4,815 per ton.
A new report from Safras & Mercado indicates a sharp decline in Brazilian coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year, falling to just 63.35 million bags, 3.3% lower than previous forecasts. Arabica production plummeted to 38.05 million bags, 14% lower than the previous year, while Robusta production exceeded 25 million bags but still fell short of the shortfall. Brazilian coffee exports are projected to decrease by 11%, with inventories only reaching 5% of demand, further eroding global supply and keeping prices high.
Regarding tariffs, the Brazilian government announced on August 28th that it would consider applying the Reciprocity Act to the US, after the US imposed a 50% tariff on many Brazilian exports, including coffee. If the US continues to retaliate by raising tariffs further, the global coffee market is predicted to continue to witness strong price surges.
Currently, domestic US stocks are sufficient for 45-60 days, and importers are beginning to seek alternative sources of supply from other countries. However, harvests from Colombia and Vietnam are not expected to begin harvesting and exporting starting this October.
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-soi-dong-sac-xanh-102250901100047482.htm
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