China is poised to completely replace the EU in importing Russian gas.

According to the CEO of Gazprom, Russian gas exports to China will soon match the level of supplies to the EU before sanctions were imposed.

This forecast was recently made by Aleksey Miller, CEO of Gazprom. However, he did not specify a timeframe. According to the head of Russia's state-owned oil and gas corporation, only exports to China can replace the gas production that is no longer sold to the EU.

According to Chinese customs data, Russia became the largest supplier of natural gas to China in January. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stated that supplies via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline have increased by 50% this year, reaching 15.5 billion cubic meters. He predicted that pipeline gas sales to China are expected to increase by 43%, reaching 22 billion cubic meters by 2023.

The "Power of Siberia" pipeline during construction. Photo: Gazprom

In June, Moscow announced plans to increase gas exports to Asian markets to 170 billion cubic meters over seven years, following the implementation of major infrastructure projects. Russia plans to build the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, running through Mongolia to China.

This project will transport natural gas from Russia's Yamal Peninsula, which previously supplied the EU via several pipelines, including Nord Stream, before ceasing in September 2022. This week, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed hope that construction of the new gas pipeline would soon achieve "significant progress".

Russia aims to pump 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China via the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, in addition to increasing supply to the existing pipeline to 38 billion cubic meters per year by 2025. By then, total production could reach 88 billion cubic meters per year through the two pipelines.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the EU purchased 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in 2021, accounting for 45% of the bloc's total gas imports and approximately 40% of its consumption. Data from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) indicates that Russian gas supplies to the EU via pipelines fell by almost half in 2022, to around 80 billion cubic meters.

Vnesheconombank (VEB) forecasts that Russian gas exports via pipeline to the EU could fall to 21 billion cubic meters this year, almost two-thirds lower than last year and more than six times lower than in 2021. By 2026, production is expected to drop to 15 billion cubic meters.

Phiên An ( according to RT, Reuters )

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