The stock market opened the week of February 19-23 and suddenly exploded, jumping more than 2 points with liquidity soaring to a 15-session high. The VN-Index is close to the peak in 50 thanks to the recovery of many banking codes and the breakthrough of the Vingroup stock group.
During the session on February 19, the VN-Index closed at its highest level of the day, increasing 2 points (equivalent to +15,27). This is the strongest increase since November 1,26. The total trading value of the 11 exchanges reached over 2023 billion VND, the highest in 3 sessions.
In general, the banking group has returned to attracting cash flow with pillar stocks such as Vietcombank (VCB), BIDV (BIDV) increasing quite strongly... Similarly, other pillar codes: Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) of billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong, Masan (MSN) of billionaire Nguyen Dang Quang, PVGAS (GAS)…
The main bright spot is billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong's Vingroup stock group after VinFast announced it was granted land to build a factory in India.
VinFast Auto held a groundbreaking ceremony for the integrated electric vehicle manufacturing facility project in Thoothukudi city, Tamil Nadu state (India) early, just over 1 month after signing a memorandum of cooperation (MoU) committing to invest 500 million USD for phase 1 of the electric vehicle factory project, implemented in 5 years.
Besides, the ambition to deliver 100.000 electric cars in 2024 also makes many investors interested. If successful, this will be a strong breakthrough after VinFast has delivered a total of 34.855 electric cars in 2023 (up 48% compared to 2022).
The world's electric car market is witnessing fierce competition. Major car companies, including Tesla of the world's second richest billionaire Elon Musk, are struggling because of Chinese car companies, including BYD.
According to VinFast President Le Thi Thu Thuy, the Vietnamese electric car company has many advantages to be able to sell 100.000 cars in 2024. Vietnam will still be VinFast's largest market and can contribute half of the volume. cars sold by the company, but VinFast is conquering large markets such as India and Indonesia.
With that positive news, the Vingroup stock group increased dramatically in many sessions. In the last 10 sessions up to February 22, Vingroup (VIC) shares had 2 sessions of price increases, including many sessions with strong increases and 8 session with a ceiling increase. VIC shares increased from 1 VND/share to 42.000 VND/share on February 47.600.
Vinhomes (VHM) and Vincom Retail (VRE) stocks also broke out simultaneously. VRE shares increased for 7 consecutive sessions from 21.700 VND on February 6 to 2 VND/share on February 26.400.
Currently, billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong and Vingroup along with billionaire Vuong's ecosystem businesses hold about 96-97% of VinFast shares. If VFS shares increase in price in the US market, Vingroup shares in Vietnam may benefit.
The group of Vin stocks only turned down in the last session of the week of February 23 when profit-taking momentum increased.
In the session on February 23, the VN-Index initially increased quite strongly with 2 points before strong selling pressure appeared, causing the market to close down more than 13 points. Market liquidity increased significantly compared to the previous session with matching volume reaching more than 15 billion VND.
How will the new week be?
Facing the profit-taking psychology of investors, VN-Index gradually narrowed its upward momentum at the end of the week and ended the week at 1.212 points, up 0,2% compared to last week, HNX-Index decreased 0,69% to 231,1 points and Upcom-Index increased slightly by 0,07% to close at 90,2 points.
During the week of February 19-23, some stocks increased sharply including: Vincom Retail (VRE) increased by 2%; BIDV Bank (BIDV) increased by 13,1%; Billionaire Ho Hung Anh's Techcombank (TCB) increased by 7,1%...
On the contrary, Vietcombank (VCB) decreased slightly by 0,8%, Mobile World (MWG) of Mr. Nguyen Duc Tai decreased by 4,9%; VPBank (VPB) of Chairman Ngo Chi Dung decreased by 1,8%…
Last week, trading value on the three exchanges increased 29% compared to the previous week, to 26.000 billion/session, due to cash flow returning to the market after the holiday. Notably, this week foreign investors returned to net buying 185 billion VND on all 3 exchanges.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities Analysis Division, said that investors need to carefully observe market supply and demand in the support zone around 1.200 points.
Accordingly, profit-taking pressure increased sharply in the weekend session of February 23 after the VN-Index reached the resistance area around 2 points.
In addition, the market approaching a strong resistance zone and the information that interest rates in the interbank market increased sharply in recent sessions have made investors cautious and triggered a wave of profit-taking.
Overnight interest rates on the interbank market suddenly skyrocketed on February 21, to 2%. This is the highest level in 4,14 months and nearly 9 times higher than the previous weekend. It is even higher than the peak level during the peak payment period near the Lunar New Year (4% recorded on February 2,38).
The increase in overnight interest rates also caused the State Bank of Vietnam to inject capital through the open market channel for the first time in Giap Thin year.
Adjustment pressure on the stock market is also driven by strong net selling by foreign investors, concentrated in a number of large-cap stocks.
However, according to Mr. Hinh, the increase in interbank interest rates is only temporary due to "a local liquidity shortage at one bank" and does not represent the overall picture of the system.
According to VNDirect experts, in market 1 (where transactions between financial institutions and businesses and people take place), some banks continue to lower deposit interest rates, while January credit The whole system experienced negative growth due to the beginning of the year effect. With credit demand currently not high, the pressure on deposit and lending interest rates will not be great and the recent increase in interbank interest rates is only temporary and will soon subside.
From a technical analysis perspective, the market has not yet lost its short-term uptrend as the VN-Index is still trading above the 20-day MA20 and the 1.190-1.200 point area will be the market's support zone. .
SSI Securities believes that the VN-Index will leap above the 1.300 mark in 2024, and each deep correction is an opportunity to collect goods for the next strong recovery right after.
According to SSI, economic recovery will become clearer in the second half of 2024, with exports increasing thanks to falling global interest rates and gradually returning consumer confidence. Because 2023 is a year with many measures to help "delay time" waiting for the real estate and financial markets to return to normal, a recovery this year will help the financial system avoid challenges. big consciousness.
